Scientific meeting of experts to understand tsunami sources, hazards, risk and uncertainties associated with the Tonga-Kermadec Subduction Zone

29 October - 02 November 2018,

NZ Parliament Building ‘The Beehive’
Wellington
New Zealand



Agenda



1.1 Welcome and introductions/role of IOC and ICG-PTWS
1.2 Overview of meeting aims/objectives/IOC requirements and expectations of experts meeting
1.3 Discussion on regional and global implications
1.4 Presentation and discussion of ‘what do we want to achieve?’ and key priorities
1.5 Current state scientific update, per discipline (30mins each) 1
1.5.1 Tsunami Modelling/Tsunami Scienc
1.5.2 Seismology
1.5.3 Paleotsunami
1.5.4 GNSS/Geodesy
1.5.5 Overall tectonics
1.6 Summary and reflection on scientific updates and next steps for Day 2
2 Focus: Seismic Source
2.1 Re-confirm and test meeting outcomes following Day 1 (what can/we need to achieve and priorities)
2.2 Global practice and global analogues (Slab 2 and GEM)
2.3 Geodetic and geologic constraints on seismicity
2.4 Probabilistic hazard assessment introduction
2.5 Open discussion on approaches and findings related to probabilistic assessment
2.6 Deterministic seismic assessment
3 Focus: Tsunami Source
3.1 Re-confirm and test meeting outcomes following Day 3 (what can/we need to achieve and priorities)
3.2 Elicitation process on seismic source model to support tsunami discussions (potential models that can be tested)
3.3 Modelling, propagation and inundation (based on results of Day 3 Session 2)
3.4 Uncertainty and availability of tsunami inundation
3.5 Paleotsunami directions and implications
3.6 Discussion of items 3, 4 and 5 and the implications for future science and research in the Pacific/presentation of items not covered
3.7 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment model elicitation
3.8 Summary/Implications for next two days: Key consideration: What can this system ‘do’? (Tonga vs. Kermadec sections)
4 Focus: Maximum credible scenario and implications for tsunami early warning
4.1 Credibility ranking of scenarios – based on work completed in previous three days
4.2 Ideas on emerging technologies that can advance tsunami early warning
4.3 Best practice regional tsunami early warning (incl. uncertainty)
4.4 Tsunami early warnings policy, processes, warning systems
5 FOCUS: Pacific wide implications and elements of emergency management
5.1 Re-confirm and test meeting outcomes and following Day 4 (what can/we need to achieve and
5.2 Opportunity for Pacific Island Country (PIC’s) observers to participate with questions and what science and uncertainty means for them
5.3 Discussion on specific vulnerability and exposure following the weeks discussions and meeting Outcomes
5.4 Data sharing considerations (Pacific wide)
5.5 Implications of dealing with uncertainty for tsunami service providers and emergency management
5.6 Communicating science and best practice under uncertainty
5.7 How can workshop outcomes support or change readiness activities
5.8 Summary/implications/key information to be captured in the official IOC report
5.9 Official experts meeting photo for UNESCO IOC and opportunity to address publicity or communications pre world tsunami