ࡱ> %` VbjbjNN w,,LVVVVVVV$z555P5|N6z)].77L 8 8 8:::\\\\\\\$`h=c\V@::"@@\VV 8 8\BCBCBC@V 8V 8\2C@\BCBCWVVY 8"7 P 5AX\ZL\0)]X;dB;d,YYf;dV Z<:R< Cn=R>6:::\\BX:::)]@@@@zzz&dzzz&zzzVVVVVV Summary. This document informs the Executive Council of the main directions and recent results of WCRP activities with a focus on oceanographic research. Sponsorship of WCRP helps IOC to contribute to the achievement of objectives of the UNESCO Inter-sectoral Platform on Climate Change and UN system-wide response on climate change. Fundamental climate research coordinated by WCRP serves as foundation for establishment of the future climate services, enables climate change impact assessment, adaptation to the impacts and planning for mitigation measures. This update on the WCRP programme execution and budget has a focus on oceanographic research. Advances in ocean observations, data assimilation and modelling, achieved on global and regional scale under the WCRP CLIVAR Project, and in the Polar Regions in association with the WCRP Climate and Cryosphere Project create the foundation for climate predictions on time scales from seasons to decade and centuries. The WCRP-IOC Task Group on sea-level variability and change is making good progress. WCRP is an active supporter and co-sponsor of many oceanographic activities and events including those led by IOC. WCRP: update on programme execution and budget The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and International Council for Science (ICSU) established the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) to address two major objectives: to determine the predictability of climate and to determine the effects of human activities on climate for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society. Since 1993 IOC is a co-sponsor of WCRP. This document informs the Executive Council of the main directions and recent results of WCRP activities with a focus on oceanographic research. More complete information on WCRP activities including ones linked to oceanography is available from the WCRP website ( HYPERLINK "http://wcrp.wmo.int" http://wcrp.wmo.int), CLIVAR website ( HYPERLINK "http://www.clivar.org" http://www.clivar.org), CliC website ( HYPERLINK "http://clic.npolar.no" http://clic.npolar.no) and from a report entitled WCRP Achievements: Scientific Knowledge for Climate Adaptation, Mitigation and Risk Management, which was published in August 2009 ( HYPERLINK "http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_AR_2008_2009.pdf" http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_AR_2008_2009.pdf) and is currently being translated into French, Chinese, Spanish, and Russian. The recommendations of the recent WCRP review, in which IOC took part (see  HYPERLINK "http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_Review_2009.pdf" http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_Review_2009.pdf and the report of the IOC-XXV/3), and internal deliberations led the WCRP Joint Scientific Committee (JSC) to undertake an overall programme assessment and planning activity that is currently ongoing. Planning is taking place on two time horizons: an intermediate period (20102015) and a long-term period (post-2015). The JSC called on the leadership of all the WCRP Projects, Working Groups and Panels to develop an implementation plan that would describe the major research activities and initiatives WCRP would promote and undertake during the intermediate period. This plan was published in September 2010 and can be found at ( HYPERLINK "http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_IP.pdf" http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/WCRP_IP.pdf). For the longer term, the JSC has embarked on a major visioning process which included preparation of a series of white papers that were reviewed at the JSC session in February 2010. There was recognition that WCRP post-2015 would be strongly influenced by the evolution of climate science in the past decades, but that the future would demand more flexibility and agility to respond to stakeholder demands and the needs of society. Plans are under development and will be presented at the next session of the JSC in 2011. The WCRP Open Science Conference (OSC, ( HYPERLINK "http://www.wcrp-climate.org/conference2011" www.wcrp-climate.org/conference2011), to be held 2428 October 2011 in Denver, Colorado, will also provide an important forum for community input to the planning process. It will have several themes/sessions focussed on the role of oceans in climate. WCRP scientists played a major role in the success of the World Climate Conference-3 (31 August4 September 2009, Geneva, Switzerland). Its High-Level Segment agreed to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) to enable production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. Further strengthening of both GCOS and the WCRP were acknowledged as key to a successful GFCS. A WCRP Task Force is being formed to further scope the role of WCRP science in climate services. WCRP was a major contributor to and sponsor of OceanObs09 (2125 September 2009, Venice, Italy) organized by IOC and European Space Agency (ESA). Chairs of the OOPC and CLIVAR Global Synthesis and Observations Panel were Co-chairs of the 2009 Conference. Under the auspices of the WCRP/CLIVAR Working Group on Coupled Modelling, 21 modelling groups are participating in the largest-ever WCRP Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). It will provide global climate model projections for Fifth IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). Improvements from CMIP3, which was a key contribution to AR4, include better evaluations, documentation and use of integrated Earth system models. WCRP will make results of climate model runs available to worldwide community through a comprehensive archive. In 20052006 the archive of CMIP3 predictions has been accessed by over 2,000 scientists from many countries of the world, both developing and developed. It resulted in over 500 peer-reviewed papers on various topics (such as African monsoon variability, drought in Australia, hydrology in the Mekong River, Pacific Island climate change detection, Arctic contribution to sea-level rise, and anthropogenic impact on Southern Oceanto name just a few). The CMIP5 output will be complemented by regionally-downscaled climate predictions through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The CORDEX intercomparison effort has the initial focus on Africa. The project is well underway and is becoming a reference for the community. CORDEX will provide a quality-controlled regional climate downscaling dataset for the recent historical past and 21st century projections, make this dataset available to climate impact assessment and adaptation groups via an agreed protocol, and will offer support in using the dataset. A WCRP workshop on regional modelling and downscaling will be held in Lille, France in June of this year with strong representation from the IPCC WG I and WG II communities. WCRP is partnering with WMO, GCOS and ICPAC to execute a World Bank-sponsored project on climate risk reduction for the Greater Horn of Africa countries. Three workshops this year will bring together climate practitioners and users to assess available climate data and downscaling products and to identify best practices and gaps that need to be filled. Decadal predictability of climate is a major focus for WCRP. This is a timescale more relevant to national planning for adaptation to climate change than the centennial time scale of previously-produced climate projections. CMIP5 includes a series of experiments on short-term climate prediction for the next 30 years. CLIVAR recently organized a workshop to address some of the technical challenges that decadal prediction poses. The workshop reviewed initialization and perturbation techniques in earth system models and developed a roadmap to making skilful decadal predictions. Noting the observed rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic and the large spread of simulated sea-ice extent predictions in present models, the JSC prepared a white paper on this subject. CliC and SPARC in cooperation with several partners are organizing a workshop (2529 October 2010, Bergen, Norway) on polar climate predictability on seasonal to multi-decadal timescales with an aim to develop a WCRP-wide research strategy. This work is centred at the role of ocean in climate and depends on the availability and accuracy of ocean data syntheses. A major ongoing effort within WCRP is the Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP) aimed at the development of seasonal predictions. This project is a multi-model, multi-institutional experimental framework for the assessment of state-of-the-science seasonal forecast systems, and to evaluate the potential for untapped predictability due to interactions between the components of the climate system that are currently not fully accounted for in seasonal forecasts. Ocean components of the predictive system are key and undergo systematic assessment and development. A WCRP update on sea-level rise was prepared for and presented to the UNFCCC COP15 ( HYPERLINK "http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/sea_level_4page_en1.pdf" http://wcrp.wmo.int/documents/sea_level_4page_en1.pdf). The joint WCRP-IOC Task Group on sea-level variability and change is making good progress. The overall goal of the group is to improve our ability to monitor, explain, predict global and regional sea level and all environmental factors related to it, and use this information for informed decision making. There is now good understanding of the observed sea-level change: estimates of the different contributions add up to the total observed, from the 1960s through the middle of the last decade. The first session of the Task Group Steering Committee took pace in Bern, Switzerland, in 24 March 2010. Several workshops have been conducted and are being planned to address cryospheric (especially ice sheet) contribution to the future sea-level rise. Review papers will be produced as input to the IPCC AR5. The Steering Committee is also planning a workshop to address main issues associated with regional aspects of the sea-level variability and change including extreme sea levels. WCRP co-sponsors the three observing panels of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) to help ensure that ocean, atmosphere and terrestrial observations requirements for climate research are met. The WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP) is embarking on an inventory of WCRP data sets to facilitate access and assist in model validation and verification. Coordination of the many ongoing reanalysis activities is also a high priority for the near future. The Third WCRP International Conference on Reanalysis (28 January1 February 2008, Tokyo, Japan) included sessions on the oceans and sea-ice issues and coupled atmosphere-ocean data assimilation. WCRP collects climate quality observations as part of many ongoing field efforts designed to improve understanding of key climate processes. Such research-based observations have contributed and are contributing to the development of global measuring systems such as Argo in the ocean and Coordinated Energy and water cycle Observations Project (CEOP) on land, as well as regional investigations such as the VAMOS Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study (VOCALS) in the Eastern Pacific, African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) in West Africa and the Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE). The WCRP JSC identified two main categories of capacity building requirements: (a) institutional capacity in developing countries and (b) qualified people in specialized areas such as model development and computational science. WCRP aims to build on existing entities within WMO/IOC/ICSU and networks such as START to develop a sustained approach that will ensure the scientific community needed for climate research in the future. Another unique WCRPs contribution to the capacity building is associated with a wide-range and continuously increasing use of accessible numerical climate predictions by scientists around the world. Recent seminars and summer schools held: ClimEco Training Seminar for Young Marine Scientists (Brest, France, April 2008, by WCRP, IGBP/IMBER&GLOBEC, EUR-OCEANS). 2009 Summer Colloquium on the Marine Ecosystem and Climate (NCAR, WCRP, GLOBEC) Summer school ENSO Dynamics and Predictability (Hawaii, United States, June 2008 by WCRP and IGBP/PAGES). SOLAS biennial Summer School (Cargese, Italy, every 2 years) Summer school: Ice sheet models for 21st century (Portland, Oregon, August 2009, by CliC, IACS and CRESIS) At the most recent session of the WCRP JSC, CLIVAR was asked to report on the countries involved in its global, regional and thematic ocean related activities. This information is being compiled and will be presented to JSC and IOC in the near future. An example of the most recent national effort is the report on CLIVAR in Spain unveiled on Monday 12 April 2010. It was widely reported by major Spanish newspapers. Examples of CLIVAR major recent accomplishments in the area of oceanography: Collaborative intercomparison and assessment of global ocean synthesis (reanalysis) products aimed at determining their quality and potential for ocean model initialization in climate prediction Ongoing implementation of an integrated Indian Ocean Observing System in collaboration with IOC and Indian Ocean GOOS Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE, 20062011) to improve regional climate prediction The GO-SHIP Panel established together with the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP) to develop a strategy for a sustained global repeat hydrography programme Support to and coordination of programmes to monitor the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in the Atlantic, a key node of the conveyor belt Coordination of key international climate process studies in the Pacific Model intercomparison activities aimed at improving seasonal predictions and ocean model performance Coordination of field studies to help improve parameterization schemes for atmosphere and ocean climate models and their interactions Development of an electronic African Climate Atlas, a tool for research on African climate Organizing and sponsoring training workshops on seasonal prediction in Africa, climate impacts on ocean ecosystems, climate data and extremes and ENSO. The following CLIVAR Working Groups (WGs) are involved in or lead ocean research: Regional Ocean Panels: Atlantic Implementation Panel, Pacific Implementation Panel, CLIVAR/IOC-GOOS Indian Ocean Panel, CLIVAR/CliC/SCAR Southern Ocean Region Panel covering research based observations development for four out of five oceans Global Synthesis and Observations Panel (GSOP) leading breakthrough activities on ocean data synthesis and reanalysis CCI/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) WGCM/CLIVAR Working Group on Ocean Model Development (WGOMD) Monsoon Panels: Asian-Australian Monsoon Panel (AAMP), Variability of the American Monsoon Systems (VAMOS), Variability of the African Climate System Panel (VACS): all these panels have a very significant oceanographic component The WCRP/SCAR/IASC co-sponsored Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) Project reports the following recent advances in the ocean-relevant research: Input from the climate research community shaped the scientific programme of IPY 20072008 leading to formulating the concepts and planning of the Arctic Ocean Observing System and Sustaining Arctic Observing Networks (through the International Arctic Science Committee and its Arctic Ocean Sciences Board (AOSB)) and Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS, with SCAR, SCOR and several other partners) Establishing an Arctic hydrological cycle observing system to advance polar hydrology and enable global studies of ocean freshwater balance. The following CliC scientific themes/activities are involved in ocean research: CliC Marine Cryosphere and Climate (MarC) Theme and its Arctic Ice WG Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) Assessmentjoint with AMAP and IASC A WG being established to focus on study of Southern Ocean ice in association with the  HYPERLINK "http://www.aspect.aq/" Antarctic Sea Ice Processes & Climate (ASPeCt), an expert group on multi-disciplinary Antarctic sea ice zone research within the SCAR Physical Sciences programme Integrated Arctic Ocean Observation System (iAOOS, by AOSB and CliC) A Freshwater Balance of the Arctic and Southern Ocean initiative An intercomparison of sea-ice extent algorithms The WCRP Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) leads production of surface flux research (through the Project SeaFlux) and facilitates regional climate studies. Its regional BALTEX project has a very strong oceanographic component. Together with the IGBP, Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) and the international Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global Pollution (CACGP) WCRP cosponsors the Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS) Project that focuses on biogeochemical and physical interactions between the ocean and atmosphere. In 2009 a joint SCOR/WCRP/IAPSO WG-136 was established on Climatic Importance of the Greater Agulhas System. Some forthcoming future ocean-related meetings: CLIVAR WGOMD-GSOP Workshop on Decadal Variability, Predictability, and Prediction: Understanding the Role of the Ocean, 2023 September 2010, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA International Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America, Trends, teleconnections and potential impacts, 12-14 October 2010, Guayaquil, Ecuador Second International Symposium Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans (Yeosu, Korea, May 2012): WCRP will be a co-sponsor of this symposium. WCRP receives financial support from its sponsors, the World Meteorological Organization, the International Council for Science (ICSU), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO. Financial contributions by WMO and IOC are made to the WCRP Joint Climate Research Fund (JCRF). The Table below provides JCRF income and expenditures converted from Swiss Francs to US Dollars using April 2010 UN rate of exchange (US$ 1 = CHF 1.062). US$200820092010 (est.)INCOMEWMO1,847,8001,874,6001,847,600ICSU467,200498,400513,300IOC125,000125,000125,000Misc. income (conf.)183,000 Total Income26230002,498,0002,485,900ExpendituresSalaries & related costs1,297,3001,349,4001,489,200Operating expenses107,100172,600180,000Scientific activities support523,700743,900781,100Total Expenditures1,928,1002,265,9002,450,300 The GEWEX international project office is hosted by USA supported by the US-National Aeronautics and Space-Administration (NASA) and some staff travel is supported by the US-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Japan provides support for the international coordination of GEWEX/CEOP. The CLIVAR project office is hosted by UK and supported by the Natural Environment Research Council, UK, and NASA, NOAA and the US-National Science Foundation through US CLIVAR. The CliC project office is hosted in Norway and supported by the Norwegian Polar Institute and the Research Council of Norway. CliC has been co-sponsored by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) since 2004 and by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) since 2008. The SPARC international project office is hosted by Canada and supported by contributions from the Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS), the Canadian Space Agency, Environment Canada, and the University of Toronto.     ICG/CARIBE-EWSII/WD__ Page PAGE 2 IOC-XXIV/2 Annex __ Page PAGE 3 Restricted Distribution IOC/EC-XLIII/Inf.3 Paris, 29 April 2010 Original: English  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (of UNESCO) Forty-third Session of the Executive Council UNESCO, Paris, 816 June 2010 Item 5.1 of the Provisional Agenda World ClimAte Research Programme (WCRP): update on programme execution and budget IOC/EC-XLIII/Inf.3 Page PAGE 4 IOC/EC-XLIII/Inf.3 Page PAGE 3 IOC/EC-XLIII/Inf.3  #PW0 5 ? 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