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Development of Comprehensive Tsunami Risk Assessment and Mitigation Guidelines for the Indian Ocean
Initial literature review
1. INTRODUCTION
1.The literature relating to tsunamis is extensive and has increased greatly during the last four years as a consequence of the devastating Indian Ocean tsunami of December 2004. The literature encompasses the physical science of tsunamis and their driving forces; the vulnerability of, and risk to, coastal communities and their supporting economies and ecosystems in respect of tsunami impacts; disaster management; post-impact rehabilitation; and hazard mitigation. It includes reports of the many post-impact assessments, notably those carried out in countries around the Indian Ocean after the 2004 event, dealing with various aspects of damage and loss.
2.Importantly, the record includes national, regional and global databases of tsunami events (in particular, the U.S. NGDC-NOAA/WDC Historical Tsunami Database and the Novosibirsk Tsunami Laboratory Historical Tsunami Database for the World Ocean), listings of published tsunami information and research sources (e.g., Wiegel, 2006a, b) and a state-of-the-art review (Satake, 2005). It also includes publications which provide advice to coastal communities on tsunami awareness and preparedness (e.g., UNESCO, 2006a; GeoHazards International, 2008; UNESCO, 2008), and one which presents a glossary of tsunami-related terminology (UNESCO, 2006b). Tsunamis are amongst other physical coastal hazards that have been included in IOC global guidelines on the mainstreaming of coastal hazard risks and mitigation within the context of Integrated Coastal Area Management (ICAM, UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
3.This review focuses on the topics as identified at the Dubai Workshop of Working Group 3 of the ICG/IOTWS in October 2007 and listed at Annex 1 in the projects Terms of Reference. It is presented from the perspective of the intended users of the Guidelines in the IOTWS member states. It has an emphasis on published work dealing with the description of basic and best-practice methodologies and case studies that would enable countries, individually or jointly, to conduct their own tsunami risk assessments and develop effective and optimal mitigation solutions.
4.The prime objective of the review is to summarize the current state of knowledge relating to tsunami risk assessment and mitigation relevant to IOTWS member states. Other aims are to expose knowledge gaps and actual or potential shortcomings in the present methodologies for tsunami risk assessment; and to identify impediments to the application of risk knowledge to the processes of mitigation by emergency managers, engineers and planners. Shortcomings and impediments as perceived by the reviewer are indicated where appropriate in the text.
5.The structure of the review corresponds broadly to that of the Draft Outline at Annex 1 of the Dubai Workshop Report within Risk Assessment Methodology and Tsunami Risk Countermeasures and Mitigation. The topic of Coping and Resilience has been afforded separate sectional status.
2. RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY
1.The topics within this section include tsunami sources and the ocean-wide propagation of tsunami. These are relevant to all Indian Ocean countries. Their investigation by the international science community has benefited from experience at the regional-to-global scale, including tsunami knowledge gained in the Pacific region in particular. Also included in this section are topics of specifically national-to-local relevance inundation, vulnerability and risk issues for which national agencies and local authorities have direct responsibilities. The recognition and ownership of these latter issues by individual countries, together with the development of appropriate capacity, are key elements of the risk assessment methodology. The capacity being developed through involvement of the international community at the country level, as, e.g., in the Germany-Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS), is a valuable step forward. Another example is the Italy-Thailand project on tsunami risk assessment (IMELS, 2006) HYPERLINK "http://www.medingegneria.it/page.jsp?idPagina=596" .
2.1 Tsunami hazard (deep-water approximation) sources and wave propagation
1.The results of research into tsunami sources and ocean-wide propagation from those sources are of fundamental importance to countries in their assessments of tsunami hazard. These data provide information on the likelihood of a tsunami impact at a specified location in terms of the magnitude of the ocean wave (or waves) and the frequency of the event (often expressed as a return period). Without this information, attempts at the mitigation of risk in respect of tsunami by country agencies would be intuitive or haphazard, and could even be quite unnecessary.
2.The propagation of tsunamis is a subject which has received much attention in recent years, with the result that the timing and magnitude of waves in the deep ocean generated from a given source can now be predicted with reasonable accuracy. Such information is of crucial importance to national warning centres in their issuance of warnings to coastal communities of impending tsunami impacts. Such predictions are inappropriate for near-field tsunamis with short propagation times. Coastal communities in these circumstances need to respond directly to the earthquake (e.g. Geist, 2002).
3.Research into tsunami propagation is based on modelling and, for far-field events, on real-time observation by satellite altimetry. Key modelling contributions include specific event simulations (e.g., Geist et al., 2007) and pre-calculated simulations for potential events around the world (e.g., Annunziato and Best, 2005; Burbidge and Cummins, 2007; see also JRC, undated). The SIM model, as deployed in the U.S., is another example (NOAA Centre for Tsunami Research, undated); its function is to provide real-time tsunami predictions for selected coastal locations while the tsunami is propagating through the open ocean, before the waves have reached many coastlines. Other modelling studies have investigated the ways in which propagation impacts the lee sides of islands and headlands which do not directly face the tsunami source. Propagation patterns may also be influenced by the bathymetry of the deep ocean (Satake, 1988).
4.Studies involving satellite altimetry have used the fortuitous passage of imaging satellites to provide information on the heights of tsunamis in the deep ocean (Gower, 2007; Fujii and Satake, 2007; Ablain et al., 2008; see also USGS, undated, a). Another approach has involved the application of artificial neural networks to assess travel times (Barman et al., 2006). The main aims of ICG-IOTWS Working Group 4 are to develop the tools and models for deep ocean propagation and to provide training. COAST MAP IO is a UNESCO-IOC project to increase capacity of member states to collect this data. The WG has developed guidelines for model standards, as there are so many different modelling programmes being used by Indian Ocean countries (U.S. IOTWS, 2008; see also Synolakis et al., 2007).
5.Research into the sources of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean has made similar strides over the last decade or so (Satake and Okal, 2007; Okal and Synolakis, 2008). For tsunamis with tectonic sources, much attention has been directed to the importance of faults (notably megathrusts) associated with subduction zones as the loci (or surfaces) of sporadic crustal movements (seismic events) that may lead to sudden, tsunamigenic displacements of the sea bed (Sieh, 2006; Satake and Tanioka, 1999). While the positions of subduction zones and their fault regimes are generally well known, the locations and timings of such seismic, and potentially tsunamigenic, events remain unpredictable even if they are inevitable.
6.The prospect of future tsunamis in the Indian Ocean has been considered (e.g., McCloskey et al., 2007), including the implications for tsunami forecasting of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Geist et al., 2007). Despite recent research efforts, little is known about maximum earthquake magnitudes and rupture modes, and the recurrence times of tsunami events in the Indian Ocean. The uncertainties in a tsunami hazard assessment should reflect this lack of knowledge, and these uncertainties should be clearly expressed in the hazard assessment (IOTWS Hazard Assessment Workshop, 2007).
7.The Sumatran subduction zone has, not surprisingly, attracted a great deal of attention from the research community. Many papers deal with the mode of faulting and displacement of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (see USGS, undated, b). The Makran subduction zone at the northern margin of the Arabian Sea and the tectonics of its accretionary prism (White, 1982; Byrne et al., 1992), are now receiving more attention (Pararas-Carayannis, 2006; Mokhtari et al., 2008; Okal et al., 2008).
8.The importance of volcanic centres as sites of potential tsunamigenesis is also well known (Satake, 2005). Usually such centres provide some indications of pending eruption, though again their precise timing may be unpredictable. Within the Indian Ocean region, the case of Krakatau has been modelled (Choi et al., 2003).
9.Landslides and submarine landslides are also known to be tsunamigenic (e.g., Murty, 2003). Their potential location may be foreseen, but, as seismically driven events, their timing cannot. Tsunamigenic slides may be triggered by earthquakes. One such example is the Papua New Guinea 1998 event (Synolakis et al., 2002). Little attention has been directed to the possibility of slumping on the great submarine sediment fans off the Indus and Irrawaddy deltas, and the Bengal fan in the Bay of Bengal.
10.The locations and timings of historical tsunamigenic events (palaeotsunamis) have been the subjects of much study globally. The information gleaned has provided some of the most reliable indications of the return periods for tsunamis, enabling confidence in forecasting estimating the likelihood of future events. Researchers have pieced together evidence form a variety of sources, ranging from tsunamigenic sedimentation (extending back over thousands of years), through historical documentation to anecdotal material, in order to compile a record of tsunami events around the world (Bryant and Nott, 2001; Dominey-Howes et al., 2006; Satake and Atwater, 2007). Efforts have also been made to interpret the magnitudes of tsunamis from the characters of palaeotsunami deposits (Smith et al., 2007). Current palaeotsunami research in Thailand and on Sumatra has identified evidence for as many as three ancestors to the 2004 tsunami within the past few thousand years (Jankaew et al., in press; Monecke et al., in press).
2.2 Tsunami hazard (including run-up)
1.The general timing and potential magnitude of the impact of a tsunami on a countrys coast is determined by the pattern of wave propagation from the source (see above). The actual magnitude of the impact, however, depends largely on local physical parameters. The literature on tsunami behaviour and modification as it approaches the shore and during inundation comprises both field observational data and reports of modelling outputs.
2.The inundation processes and impacts of the Indian Ocean 2004 tsunami in particular have been recorded at many sites, with data on wave heights, wave sequences, secondary waves, inundation limits and run-up heights. These published records result both from initial rapid assessments based in part on eye-witness accounts (e.g. UNEP, 2005) and from more detailed country-by-country field surveys covering island and mainland shores all around the Indian Ocean (many references available). Impact information has also been forthcoming from satellite imagery (e.g., , 2008). These surveys have covered social and environmental aspects as well as structural assessments of buildings and infrastructure. Additional information on inundation flow velocities has come from survivor videos (Fritz et al., 2004).
3.Observations of the impacts of the 2004 tsunami event showed how variable these could be even along a few kilometres of coastline. The form of the nearshore bathymetry is one of the key parameters (Matsuyama et al., 1999). The influence of coastal bathymetry on the amplitude and velocity of tsunamis, and the forces that they exert, has received considerable attention from researchers (Yeh et al., 1994; Yeh, 2006). Recent published work covers offshore wave-breaking (Korycansky and Lynett, 2005), propagation across continental margins and coral reefs (Pittard and Browning, 2007) and the circumstances in Bangladesh, where the 2004 tsunami impact was considered to have been surprisingly slight due to a highly extended continental shelf (Ioualalen et al., 2007).
4.The geomorphological nature of the shore both its geology and its topography is another key factor that determines the extent of inundation and run-up, though the need for coastal geological and geomorphological surveys features little in published work. Other important influences on the impact are vegetation, especially mangrove (Kathiresan and Rajendran, 2006) and the built environment, including any existing engineered defences. The coastal impact of a tsunami can also be modified by materials that become entrained in the course of inundation. There have been studies of erosion and sedimentation effects of tsunami impacts (Gelfenbaum and Jaffe, 2003), and the effects of entrainment of sediment and debris (e.g. wood) in an inundation surge and its subsequent drainage (Matsutomi et al., 2006).
5.The modelling of tsunami inundation and run-up has received considerable attention, with descriptions of the application of tools, such as SIFT (Titov et al., 2001), and a number of accessible models such as MOST, ANUGA (Titov et al., 2003; Synolakis and Bernard, 2006; Nielsen et al., 2006). Key inputs to these models include the open ocean (deep water) wave magnitude (see above), digital nearshore bathymetry and coastal elevation data. Tidal data may also be important (Crockett et al., 2006). Modelling can also indicate the pattern of current velocities attained during inundation and drainage (Cherniawsky et al., 2004). The availability and relevance to national agencies of inundation models and the presentation of their outputs needs to be made more explicit, along with the relationship of inundation models to deep-ocean propagation models and tsunami sources. There is a need to explain whether these are separate models or whether they are dynamically linked.
6.Inundation maps at the local scale are essential outputs of either field mapping or modelling carried out by, or on behalf of, countries. The inundation maps require qualification in terms of the observed or modelled magnitude of the tsunami impact. The maps serve as a basis for integration with data about vulnerability, leading to a risk assessment. Descriptions of the procedures involved in the production of inundation maps in respect of tsunamis are available in technical papers (e.g., Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006). There may be a need, however, for guidance at a more basic level on the methodologies involved, including descriptions of how the maps would be used in the assessments of vulnerability and risk. In the European Union, hazard maps relating to flooding (of all types including coastal flooding) will shortly become mandatory for local authorities in compliance with a newly introduced Floods Directive (Europa, undated). In the Indian Ocean region, coastal hazard maps have been produced for Indonesia as part of the GITEWS project.
2.3 Deterministic and probabilistic analyses of tsunamigenic seismic events and tsunami hazards
1.Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive tsunami assessment (Geist and Parsons, 2006; see also Dunbar and Green, 2008). There are two main approaches to the analysis of a tsunami hazard, both of which may be useful to countries in their assessment of risk. A deterministic approach assumes a defined scenario. The scenario may describe the seismic event (far- or near-field), or the deep-ocean tsunami amplitude resulting from that event, or it may describe the local parameters of the tsunami at the point of coastal impact. The analysis in such cases is deterministic determining the level of hazard impact (inundation limits, water depth, run-up height) resulting from that scenario (e.g. Burbidge and Cummins, 2007). Such an analysis is useful in the assessment of vulnerability (see below), but, because it involves no information of the incidence or recurrence of such a scenario, it cannot not facilitate the assessment of risk. However, detailed, deterministic modelling based on a particular source scenario may best serve the purposes of coastal engineers to develop effective tsunami counter-measures (Tinti and Armigliato, 2003).
2.The other approach is probabilistic analysis or PTHA (Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis), though this is at an early stage of development (Burbidge et al., 2007; Thio et al., 2007). This approach has been derived from, and is closely allied to, Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (Cornell, 1968). It introduces the key issue of the likely incidence of a hazard event. A critical factor is the estimation of the average recurrence rate for tsunamigenic sources (Geist and Parsons, 2004). It provides information about the run-up and inundation limits, and the expected recurrence or return period of an event with a specified magnitude. The reliability or credibility of this approach depends on the availability of data concerning past events. Its computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships, as in PSHA in determining ground motions (Geist and Parsons, 2006). The correct identification of uncertainties related to tsunami generation and propagation is critical in performing the probability calculations (Geist, 2005; Geist and Parsons, 2006). PTHA methodologies have been the subject of recent review with a view to improving tsunami hazard assessment guidelines in the U.S. (Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group, 2006).
2.4 Vulnerability assessment
3.Much has been written about the vulnerability of communities and their supporting economies and ecosystem services in the context of natural disasters. Publications such as those of ISDR (UN/ISDR, 2004) document recommended procedures for vulnerability assessment in respect of natural hazards. Other publications (Birkmann, 2006; Bogardi and Birkmann, 2004) emphasise the various dimensions of a communitys vulnerability social, economic, ecosystems and institutions whose assessment assists policy makers in the identification of the most critical areas or weak spots in respect of human security, industrial and utilities infrastructure, ecosystem integrity and the robustness of governance. Vulnerability can be generated and influenced by human behaviour. Socio-economic factors may have a major influence on a communitys exposure to the hazards and the capacity of the community to cope with them.
4.Vulnerability in respect of coastal physical hazards including tsunamis has been addressed in the forthcoming IOC-ICAM Guidelines (UNESCO, 2009, in prep.). It comprises a wide range of factors or parameters. Because of its multifaceted nature it is difficult to measure, and it may carry uncertainty. Its analysis must be adapted to specific objectives and scales as well as to the context of the coastal area. Individual factors that contribute to vulnerability and thus the aggregated vulnerability are dynamic. They are prone to change over time because of changing (usually increasing) coastal population as well as changing economic developments, social structures, environmental states (e.g. due to climate change) and institutional arrangements (see also U.S. IOTWS, 2007; USAID, in draft 2006).
5.Measuring vulnerability: The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami has made it obvious that there was a very high level of social and economic vulnerability to tsunami impact amongst the coastal countries (UNEP, 2005). However, there is yet no global consensus on how vulnerability to natural hazards, or the constituents of such vulnerability, should be measured (Thywissen, 2006). The challenge for the UNDP Guidelines is to set out proposals for a vulnerability assessment methodology that are achievable and focus on indicators that are clearly measurable and relevant to achieving the overarching objective of risk reduction in respect of the tsunami hazard.
6.The assessment of vulnerability for these UNDP Guidelines should relate specifically to the tsunami threat. Particular concerns affecting vulnerability are the levels of public awareness of the hazard and the preparedness on the part of the community to act speedily and effectively on receipt of a warning. Changes in the levels of vulnerability over time also need to be considered. These may be caused by social or land-use (e.g. coastal urbanization) changes, environmental changes, or as consequences of mitigation.
7.A tsunami vulnerability assessment model (the PTVA model) has been developed using data from the 2004 Indian Ocean event (Dominey-Howes and Papathoma, 2007). This model incorporates parameters related to social factors and the natural and built environment (see below) that may contribute to vulnerability. In a cooperative project by Italy and Thailand, vulnerability has been assessed at regional and local scales for the various dimensions, in particular the environmental and infrastructure (built environment) vulnerability. Field data and multi-criteria analysis were used for vulnerability evaluation and the compilation of vulnerability maps (Cavalletti et al., 2006; DallOsso et al., 2006).
8.Despite the wealth of literature on post-tsunami surveys (Synolakis and Okal 2005), little published information is available concerning the criteria for quantifying or classifying levels of social and economic vulnerability to the tsunami hazard. The issue of assigning weightings to the various dimensions of vulnerability in the determination of aggregated vulnerability is similarly poorly covered. In contrast, the assessment of physical vulnerability notably the vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure has been more intensively covered (e.g., Magoon, 1967; Bolle and Grundy, 2005; Dias et al., 2005; HYPERLINK "http://www.nae.edu/nae/bridgecom.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-6DFQZW?OpenDocument" \l "Author#Author" Dalrymple and Kriebel, 2005; Imamura et al., 1997; Matsutomi et al., 2006; Nizam, 2005; Peiris and Pomonis, 2006; Wood and Stein, 2001; Yeh et al., 2007).
9.Structural damage by tsunami can be caused by direct water forces, impact forces by water-borne debris, fire spread by floating materials (including burning oil), scour and slope/foundation failure (Yeh, 200X, Tsunami Forces in the Runup Zone). [Debris entrained by tsunami flood and drainage water was also a major contributor to human casualties ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nae.edu/nae/bridgecom.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-6DFQZW?OpenDocument" \l "Author#Author" Dalrymple and Kriebel, 2005).] In the UNDP Guidelines the criteria for assigning vulnerability levels, whether to individual structures or to community developments, need to be rationalized simplified for the benefit of countries carrying out their own vulnerability assessments.
10.Environmental vulnerability (e.g. Gelfenbaum and Jaffe, 2003; Cavalletti et al., 2006) and perhaps also institutional vulnerability (Birkmann, 2006) are additional topics that could be considered for inclusion in the guidelines (see Woodroffe and Harvey in IOC-ICAM Guidelines, UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
11.Vulnerability maps: The acquired information about the various dimensions of vulnerability should be merged if feasible to create an integrated vulnerability map showing the hotspots of vulnerability. This requires the normalization and weighting of different indicators as well as the development of vulnerability levels and classes that allow the integration of very different types of information and GIS layers. Vulnerability maps for the tsunami-exposed coasts of Indonesia have been produced as part of the Germany-Indonesia GITEWS project. Levels of vulnerability are indicated on the maps by colour-coding. In the Italy-Thailand project, a manual Creating tsunami vulnerability and risk maps through GIS software was created by as a specific tool to guide local authorities in the assessment and evaluation of vulnerability within designated coastal areas (Cavalletti et al., 2006; DallOsso et al., 2006; IMELS, 2006).
2.5 Estimating risk
1.Risk assessment is a qualitative procedure or judgement which aims to rank the different hazards according to pre-determined thresholds or levels. Risk is commonly defined as the product of the assessed hazard probability level (frequency, magnitude) and the assessed vulnerability level (losses, damage).
2.Risk assessment is a logical outcome of the processes involved in hazard and vulnerability assessments. As with those assessments, it assumes the definition of its spatial and temporal scales, and its geographical limits. The vulnerability value used may be an aggregated assessment, taking several dimensions of vulnerability into account, or it may relate to individual dimensions. Each of these values, like the hazard assessment, may carry uncertainty. The integrated output is classified in terms of the levels of risk for each vulnerability dimension for a defined hazard scenario, producing risk maps for the designated coastal management area (e.g. DallOsso et al., 2006). Risk maps for the tsunami-exposed coasts of Indonesia, with levels of risk indicated on the maps by colour-coding, have been produced as part of the Germany-Indonesia GITEWS project (see UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
3.Surprisingly little published documentation is available that relates specifically to risk assessment. Many papers which include risk assessment in their titles are actually concerned with hazard assessment and vulnerability rather than risk. There appears to be a need to clarify the meaning of risk in the context of the tsunami hazard.
4.Probabilistic and deterministic (scenario impact) risk analyses: These analyses combine the hazard analytical output (determined by using the deterministic or the probabilistic approach) with the assessed level of vulnerability.
3. COPING AND RESILIENCE
1.Coping and resilience are cross-cutting topics which relate both to vulnerability issues and the procedures for risk reduction, notably awareness and preparedness at all levels of the community. 2.Proposals and recommendations for enhancing community resilience to tsunami impacts have been produced (e.g., UN/ISDR, 2006; U.S. IOTWS, 2007), also for resilience in the face of natural disasters in general in the context of the Hyogo Framework (UN/ISDR, 2005). The safeguarding and promotion of resilience across the wide range of community functions, including their supporting ecosystems, has been forcibly expressed in the context of the 2004 Indian Ocean disaster (Adger et al., 2005). Relevant questions about exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity, adaptation and preparedness in respect of the different dimensions of vulnerability are addressed in the IOC-ICAM guidelines (UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
3.Institutional capacity may be an important factor tsunami-related risk reduction (Manuta et al., 2006). Experience over recent years of the impacts of coastal hazards, in developed and developing countries alike, has shown that inadequate preparation for, and response to, emergency situations have contributed to widespread damage and the avoidable loss of lives and livelihoods. In some instances these shortcomings have been due to a lack of warning through poor regional detection and communication systems. But in many cases, they have reflected inadequate awareness, planning and coordination on the part of national and local authorities and agencies (UNESCO, 2009, in prep.). In the U.S., a recent study showed that few coastal counties had prepared well for tsunamis (Tang et al., 2008).
4.The experience of the responses to the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004 (and to the storm surges associated with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Cyclone Nargis in 2008) has highlighted dysfunctional institutional structures and systems which have hindered the translation of such knowledge and awareness as does exist into responses that are effective in reducing risk.
5.The practical application of risk knowledge in actions for risk reduction may be improved by strengthening the involvement and co-ownership of the user community and public in the science research agenda (Weichselgartner, 2007). This helps to establish the credibility, legitimacy and relevance of the research-based knowledge output among practitioners, and to lower the barriers to the take-up of assessment findings by policy makers. Contributors to the assessments should work with emergency managers and planners for mutual benefit in tailoring the assessments to practical needs and ensuring that the assessments are put to good use (IOTWS Hazard Assessment Workshop, 2007).
6.Political commitment is key for the successful application of the risk assessments. The ICAM (or ICZM) process may help to resolve such institutional barriers to the achievement of effective risk reduction (UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
4. TSUNAMI RISK COUNTERMEASURES AND MITIGATION
1. The ICG/IOTWS Working Group 6 (WG6) is responsible for providing guidance in tsunami mitigation, preparedness and response. The broad scope of the groups terms of reference and planned activities are proving a challenge to the group, which may be a pointer to a far greater challenge in the implementation of mitigation within the countries of the Indian Ocean region. This potential difficulty may need to be addressed in the Guidelines.
The ICG-IOTWS Working Group 6 (WG6) presents a particular challenge to the successful fulfillment of the IOTWS objectives (U.S. IOTWS, 2008). The WG6 serves a very important role, yet the scope of the terms of reference and the very large number of organizations involved in disaster risk reduction and coastal community resilience [present obstacles to the implementation of its activities]. Many WG6 participants from the region are new to the ICG process and it is a challenge to identify a single point of contact for WG6 participation. This challenge within the ICG may be a pointer to a far greater challenge in the implementation of mitigation within the countries of the region. This potential difficulty may need to be addressed in the UNDP Guidelines.
4.1 Short-term methods (early warning)
1.The provision of early warning facilities to coastal communities is a key part of the development of the preparedness of those communities for coping with the rapid-onset, potentially catastrophic hazards. The Tsunami Warning Center Reference Guide (USAID, 2007) describes the existing warning system for tsunamis for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System. The other crucial part of community preparedness is about knowing what to do in the event of an alert being received from a Regional Watch Centre and a warning being issued by a National Warning Centre.
2.The following documents may assist in the development of awareness and preparedness:
GeoHazards International, 2008. Preparing Your Community for Tsunamis: A Guidebook for Local Advocates. Available at HYPERLINK "http://www.geohaz.org" www.geohaz.org
IOC Tsunami Teacher. Available at HYPERLINK "http://ioc3.unesco.org/TsunamiTeacher/" http://ioc3.unesco.org/TsunamiTeacher/
UNESCO, 2006a. Tsunami - The Great Waves. Available at: HYPERLINK "http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/files/great_waves_en_2006_small.pdf" http://ioc3.unesco.org/itic/files/great_waves_en_2006_small.pdf
UNESCO, 2009 (in prep.). Hazard awareness and risk mitigation in ICAM. IOC manuals and Guides No. XX.
UN/ISDR, undated. International Strategy for Disaster Reduction: Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning: Tsunami. Available at: HYPERLINK "http://www.unisdr.org/ppew/tsunami/ppew-tsunami.htm" http://www.unisdr.org/ppew/tsunami/ppew-tsunami.htm
3.An essential element of the response is the evacuation (or self-evacuation) of people and key mobile assets (e.g. vehicles and important information) to safe areas before the impact of a potentially catastrophic event. Safe zones must be determined with respect to hazard maps, geographic location and accessibility (IOC-UNESCO Dubai Workshop, 2007). Evacuation planning begins with an assessment of the types of impact which the hazard can provoke, and of the time available to carry out such evacuation considering the lead warning time.
4.The identification of people at risk and their location allows emergency and disaster planners to develop evacuation plans and strategies tailored to the needs and capacities of those people at risk. The identification of potential evacuation routes and safe areas is carried out using information regarding the dynamic features of the hazard. In some cases it is important to consider vertical evacuation, and therefore, a structural assessment of the buildings to be employed for evacuation purposes is required (see below) to ensure that such buildings offer adequate safety to those people who use it to seek temporary shelter (see Yeh et al., 2005; National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, 2007; see also Long-term methods, below).
5.The use of inundation maps for evacuation planning is standard practice on the U.S. Pacific coast (e.g., Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, undated). There are many similar published examples of evacuation maps and routes available on the Web. Some have been colour-zoned to indicate evacuation times (e.g., GITEWS project in UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
6.Optimizing the evacuation process involves the use of signage, education and practice drills involving all levels of the community. These elements are covered in the various published guidelines, listed above. In the U.S. at least there is a need to establish standards and/or endorse best practices for products including hazard and evacuation maps, mitigation and preparedness programmes (National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, 2007).
4.2 Long-term methods
1.The ultimate goal of strategic risk management is effective and sustainable risk reduction or mitigation. This entails choosing strategic management options for risk reduction that are appropriate to the scale of the designated coastal management area, balancing social and economic pressures against environmental considerations, including sustainability over the long-term. The topics within this section were dealt with, though for other physical hazards besides tsunamis, in the IOC-ICAM guidelines (UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
2.Natural barriers: Some of the tsunami protection solutions are available at reasonable cost ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nae.edu/nae/bridgecom.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-6DFQZW?OpenDocument" \l "Author#Author" Dalrymple and Kriebel, 2005). In Thailand the presence of coastal sand dunes reduced the force and velocity of inland flooding. Dunes are a simple, low-tech construction that can be implemented fairly easily. In addition, replanting mangrove swamps at appropriate locations can reduce the intensity of the waves. The role of coastal trees to act as bioshields protecting populations and assets from tsunamis and other natural hazards has generated contrasting views HYPERLINK "http://www.fao.org/forestry/coastalprotection/en/" (e.g. Dahdouh-Guebas, 2006).
3.Artificial barriers: Seawalls have been shown to be effective in the dissipation of tsunami energy and may be considered a protection solution for populated coasts (Kim, undated). Breakwaters across embayments are similarly effective, these perhaps combining tsunami mitigation with port development (Pilarczyk and Zeidler, 1996; Hettiararchchi and Samarawickrama, 2005).
4.Building codes: In Thailand tsunami-proof structures with flow-through designs, stronger buildings, and deeper scour-resistant foundations are mandatory. The orientation of buildings with respect to the ocean is another factor for consideration (Kim, 2009). Particular attention has been directed to the security of buildings used for vertical evacuation shelters (Yeh et al., 2005). Cost is one of the most difficult impediments to tsunami-proofing structures. With low levels of risk, calculating acceptable investments for elevating structures, refitting buildings to reduce damage, and zoning people out of inundation regions may be difficult ( HYPERLINK "http://www.nae.edu/nae/bridgecom.nsf/weblinks/MKEZ-6DFQZW?OpenDocument" \l "Author#Author" Dalrymple and Kriebel, 2005).
5.Land-use planning and set-backs: Land use planning and development practices can reduce tsunami risk through the local government infrastructure, promoting a coastal development system that will reduce the risk of major damage during a tsunami (Eisner, 2005). Development setbacks to cope with inter alia the threat of coastal physical hazards have become mandatory in a number of countries (see NOAA, undated). In the Mediterranean region, all countries that are signatories to the Barcelona Convention are bound to adopt setback planning regulation (see UNESCO, 2009, in prep.). Construction setbacks are intended to direct new development or redevelopment out of identified hazard areas and to protect natural hazard mitigation features such as beaches and dunes by restricting development seaward of a setback line, established parallel to the shoreline. The type of setback used, including how and from where it is established, can vary widely (Trumbic in UNESCO, 2009, in prep.).
4.3 Risk transfer
1.Insurance mechanisms: Insurance plays an important role in offering financial protection from the costs of flooding (ABI, 2004). By spreading risk across policy-holders, insurance enables householders and businesses to minimise the financial cost of damage from inundation. Furthermore, because lenders are unlikely to offer mortgages on properties that cannot obtain buildings cover, insurance plays a critical role in the operation of the property market. However, insurance can only provide an effective mechanism for spreading the risk if the risk is at a manageable level.
2.Reinsurance the insurance that insurers take out to deal with catastrophic events/claims currently provides a mechanism that would help insurers provide financial protection developments are located within the limits of potential inundation, and potentially at risk from a large-scale inundation event. However, it is anticipated that reinsurers will be increasingly selective of the portfolios they are prepared to take on. Reinsurers model exposures based on the best-available estimates of risk. These are revised as more information becomes available, for instance following a catastrophic event. Where this reassessment leads to a limitation or withdrawal of reinsurance cover, insurers would need to reflect this in the extent of insurance coverage and the premiums they charge. This underlines the need to take a precautionary approach to large aggregations of new development in potential inundation zones.
3.Government and NGO assistance: Planning, policy and regulatory tools at the disposal of governments for risk mitigation might include the following options (NOAA, undated; see also UNESCO, 2009, in prep.):
Transfer of development rights
Targeted buyouts and relocation assistance
Tax incentives
Restriction of capital improvements
Easements and rolling easements
Post-disaster prohibition of reconstruction
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IOTWS RA Guidelines_Lit Rev(1)190908
PAGE
PAGE 8
John Schneider to provide references on asteroid impacts
Contact Slava Gusiakov about access to his database of historical tsunamis
Thio should be listed first because it is his approach
Juan Carlos to provide references
Juan Carlos offered to provide references
Sanny to provide references (IFRC?)
John Schneider to provide references
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B e 07$ 8$ H$ ^`0gdgY
hgY h3 CJ aJ h7A h9? 6 &P 1h:pb / =!"#$% U D y K 2 h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 y K | h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 yX; H,]ą'c D y K w w w . g e o h a z . o r g y K F h t t p : / / w w w . g e o h a z . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c ) D y K ' h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / T s u n a m i T e a c h e r / y K f h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / T s u n a m i T e a c h e r / yX; H,]ą'c D y K @ h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / g r e a t _ w a v e s _ e n _ 2 0 0 6 _ s m a l l . p d f y K h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / g r e a t _ w a v e s _ e n _ 2 0 0 6 _ s m a l l . p d f yX; H,]ą'c ] D y K 4 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m y K h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m yX; H,]ą'c U D y K 2 h t t p : / / w w w . f a o . o r g / f o r e s t r y / c o a s t a l p r o t e c t i o n / e n / y K | h t t p : / / w w w . f a o . o r g / f o r e s t r y / c o a s t a l p r o t e c t i o n / e n / yX; H,]ą'c D y K a h t t p : / / w w w . a b i . o r g . u k / d i s p l a y / F i l e / C h i l d / 5 5 4 / S t r a t e g i c _ P l a n n i n g _ f o r _ F l o o d _ R i s k _ t h a m e s g a t e w a y . p d f y K h t t p : / / w w w . a b i . o r g . u k / d i s p l a y / F i l e / C h i l d / 5 5 4 / S t r a t e g i c _ P l a n n i n g _ f o r _ F l o o d _ R i s k _ t h a m e s g a t e w a y . p d f yX; H,]ą'c ] D y K 4 h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / g l 0 6 2 1 / 2 0 0 6 G L 0 2 7 5 3 3 / y K h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / g l 0 6 2 1 / 2 0 0 6 G L 0 2 7 5 3 3 / yX; H,]ą'c q D y K 9 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / c g i / c o n t e n t / f u l l / 3 0 9 / 5 7 3 7 / 1 0 3 6 y K h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / c g i / c o n t e n t / f u l l / 3 0 9 / 5 7 3 7 / 1 0 3 6 yX; H,]ą'c D y K h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / y K R h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / yX; H,]ą'c U D y K 2 h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 y K | h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 yX; H,]ą'c D y K G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t y K h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t yX; H,]ą'c y D y K ; h t t p : / / e c . e u r o p a . e u / e n v i r o n m e n t / w a t e r / f l o o d _ r i s k / i n d e x . h t m y K h t t p : / / e c . e u r o p a . e u / e n v i r o n m e n t / w a t e r / f l o o d _ r i s k / i n d e x . h t m yX; H,]ą'c D y K w w w . g e o h a z . o r g y K F h t t p : / / w w w . g e o h a z . o r g / yX; H,]ą'c 5 D y K * h t t p : / / w w w . g i t e w s . o r g / i n d e x . p h p ? i d = 2 3 & L = 1 y K l h t t p : / / w w w . g i t e w s . o r g / i n d e x . p h p ? i d = 2 3 & L = 1 yX; H,]ą'c U D y K 2 h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 y K | h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 yX; H,]ą'c ) D y K ' h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / T s u n a m i T e a c h e r / y K f h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / T s u n a m i T e a c h e r / yX; H,]ą'c W D y K / w w w . n a t - h a z a r d s - e a r t h - s y s t - s c i . n e t / 7 / 1 4 1 / 2 0 0 7 / y K h t t p : / / w w w . n a t - h a z a r d s - e a r t h - s y s t - s c i . n e t / 7 / 1 4 1 / 2 0 0 7 / yX; H,]ą'c % D y K & h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / i n d e x . a s p y K d h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / i n d e x . a s p yX; H,]ą'c i D y K 7 h t t p : / / w e b . m i t . e d u / 1 2 . 0 0 0 / w w w / m 2 0 0 9 / t e a m s / 2 / d a n b e e . h t m y K h t t p : / / w e b . m i t . e d u / 1 2 . 0 0 0 / w w w / m 2 0 0 9 / t e a m s / 2 / d a n b e e . h t m yX; H,]ą'c D y K A h t t p : / / n t h m p . t s u n a m i . g o v / d o c u m e n t s / N T H M P _ 5 y r _ R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . d o c y K h t t p : / / n t h m p . t s u n a m i . g o v / d o c u m e n t s / N T H M P _ 5 y r _ R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . d o c yX; H,]ą'c A D y K - h t t p : / / w w w . n g d c . n o a a . g o v / h a z a r d / t s u _ d b . s h t m l y K r h t t p : / / w w w . n g d c . n o a a . g o v / h a z a r d / t s u _ d b . s h t m l yX; H,]ą'c D y K # h t t p : / / n c t r . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / s i m . h t m l y K ^ h t t p : / / n c t r . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / s i m . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c D y K J h t t p : / / c o a s t a l m a n a g e m e n t . n o a a . g o v / i n i t i a t i v e s / s h o r e l i n e _ p p r _ o v e r v i e w . h t m l y K h t t p : / / c o a s t a l m a n a g e m e n t . n o a a . g o v / i n i t i a t i v e s / s h o r e l i n e _ p p r _ o v e r v i e w . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c D y K $ h t t p : / / t s u n . s s c c . r u / O n _ l i n e _ C a t . h t m y K ` h t t p : / / t s u n . s s c c . r u / O n _ l i n e _ C a t . h t m yX; H,]ą'c D y K F h t t p : / / w w w . o r e g o n g e o l o g y . c o m / s u b / e a r t h q u a k e s / C o a s t a l / T s u b r o c h u r e s . h t m y K h t t p : / / w w w . o r e g o n g e o l o g y . c o m / s u b / e a r t h q u a k e s / C o a s t a l / T s u b r o c h u r e s . h t m yX; H,]ą'c a D y K 6 h t t p : / / a r c h o n e . t a m u . e d u / e p s r u / p d f / T s u n a m i % 2 0 p a p e r . p d f y K h t t p : / / a r c h o n e . t a m u . e d u / e p s r u / p d f / T s u n a m i p a p e r . p d f yX; H,]ą'c D y K # h t t p : / / p u b s . u s g s . g o v / o f / 2 0 0 6 / 1 2 3 4 / y K ^ h t t p : / / p u b s . u s g s . g o v / o f / 2 0 0 6 / 1 2 3 4 / yX; H,]ą'c m D y K 8 h t t p : / / w w w . i o t w s . o r g / e v _ e n . p h p ? I D = 2 9 0 7 _ 2 0 1 & I D 2 = D O _ T O P I C y K h t t p : / / w w w . i o t w s . o r g / e v _ e n . p h p ? I D = 2 9 0 7 _ 2 0 1 & I D 2 = D O _ T O P I C yX; H,]ą'c q D y K 9 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / a b o u t _ i s d r / b d - l w r - 2 0 0 4 - e n g . h t m y K h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / a b o u t _ i s d r / b d - l w r - 2 0 0 4 - e n g . h t m yX; H,]ą'c % D y K & h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / h f a / h f a . h t m y K d h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / h f a / h f a . h t m yX; H,]ą'c D y K M h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / n e w s - e v e n t s / F u t u r e - s t r a t e g y - 2 0 0 6 - 2 0 0 8 . d o c y K h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / n e w s - e v e n t s / F u t u r e - s t r a t e g y - 2 0 0 6 - 2 0 0 8 . d o c yX; H,]ą'c ] D y K 4 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m y K h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m yX; H,]ą'c D y K @ h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / g r e a t _ w a v e s _ e n _ 2 0 0 6 _ s m a l l . p d f y K h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / g r e a t _ w a v e s _ e n _ 2 0 0 6 _ s m a l l . p d f yX; H,]ą'c D y K @ h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / t s u n a m i _ g l o s s a r y _ e n _ s m a l l . p d f y K h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / t s u n a m i _ g l o s s a r y _ e n _ s m a l l . p d f yX; H,]ą'c m D y K 8 h t t p : / / w w w . i o t w s . o r g / e v _ e n . p h p ? I D = 2 8 9 7 _ 2 0 1 & I D 2 = D O _ T O P I C y K h t t p : / / w w w . i o t w s . o r g / e v _ e n . p h p ? I D = 2 8 9 7 _ 2 0 1 & I D 2 = D O _ T O P I C yX; H,]ą'c i D y K 7 h t t p : / / w a l r u s . w r . u s g s . g o v / t s u n a m i / s u m a t r a E Q / j a s o n . h t m l y K h t t p : / / w a l r u s . w r . u s g s . g o v / t s u n a m i / s u m a t r a E Q / j a s o n . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c y D y K ; h t t p : / / w a l r u s . w r . u s g s . g o v / t s u n a m i / s u m a t r a E Q / t e c t o n i c s . h t m l y K h t t p : / / w a l r u s . w r . u s g s . g o v / t s u n a m i / s u m a t r a E Q / t e c t o n i c s . h t m l yX; H,]ą'c E D y K . h t t p : / / w w w . c i d . h a r v a r d . e d u / c i d w p / g r a d / 0 2 1 . h t m y K t h t t p : / / w w w . c i d . h a r v a r d . e d u / c i d w p / g r a d / 0 2 1 . h t m yX; H,]ą'c ) @ @ @ N o r m a l CJ _HaJ mH sH tH N @ 2 N
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@ h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / i t i c / f i l e s / g r e a t _ w a v e s _ e n _ 2 0 0 6 _ s m a l l . p d f 4 < 4 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m M h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / n e w s - e v e n t s / F u t u r e - s t r a t e g y - 2 0 0 6 - 2 0 0 8 . d o c ] & h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / h f a / h f a . h t m > 9 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / e n g / a b o u t _ i s d r / b d - l w r - 2 0 0 4 - e n g . h t m L & 8 h t t p : / / w w w . i o t w s . o r g / e v _ e n . p h p ? I D = 2 9 0 7 _ 2 0 1 & I D 2 = D O _ T O P I C > m # h t t p : / / p u b s . u s g s . g o v / o f / 2 0 0 6 / 1 2 3 4 / { 7 8 h t t p : / / w w w . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / p u b s / P D F / t i t o 2 5 7 2 / t i t o 2 5 7 2 . p d f i Q h t t p : / / w w w . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / p u b l i c a t i o n s / s e a r c h _ a b s t r a c t . p h p ? f m C o n t r i b u t i o n N u m = 2 5 7 2 g Q h t t p : / / w w w . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / p u b l i c a t i o n s / s e a r c h _ a b s t r a c t . p h p ? f m C o n t r i b u t i o n N u m = 2 3 9 3 ) ' 4 h t t p : / / a r c h o n e . t a m u . e d u / e p s r u / p d f / T s u n a m i p a p e r . p d f L Z h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / p 0 7 8 5 8 0 l 8 2 5 7 / ? p = c 0 0 e 1 2 f 5 9 6 f b 4 9 9 5 a a d d 9 1 d e 6 d 7 3 a 1 1 2 & p i = 0 3 d ~ T h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 1 0 1 2 0 1 / ? p = c 0 0 e 1 2 f 5 9 6 f b 4 9 9 5 a a d d 9 1 d e 6 d 7 3 a 1 1 2 & p i = 0 { F h t t p : / / w w w . o r e g o n g e o l o g y . c o m / s u b / e a r t h q u a k e s / C o a s t a l / T s u b r o c h u r e s . h t m A x $ h t t p : / / t s u n . s s c c . r u / O n _ l i n e _ C a t . h t m u J h t t p : / / c o a s t a l m a n a g e m e n t . n o a a . g o v / i n i t i a t i v e s / s h o r e l i n e _ p p r _ o v e r v i e w . h t m l ' r # h t t p : / / n c t r . p m e l . n o a a . g o v / s i m . h t m l z o - h t t p : / / w w w . n g d c . n o a a . g o v / h a z a r d / t s u _ d b . s h t m l J l A h t t p : / / n t h m p . t s u n a m i . g o v / d o c u m e n t s / N T H M P _ 5 y r _ R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s . d o c g ~ i @ h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = D u n l o p % 2 C + P . f B h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = H u a n g % 2 C + J . + D . ] c A h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = G i u n c h i % 2 C + C . 0 u ` ? h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = C o c c o % 2 C + M . O
] A h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = N a l b a n t % 2 C + S . b m Z @ h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = S t e a c y % 2 C + S . W > h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = S i e h % 2 C + K . 0 f T C h t t p : / / w w w . e a r t h - p r i n t s . o r g / i t e m s - b y - a u t h o r ? a u t h o r = P i a t a n e s i % 2 C + A . y ) Q 7 h t t p : / / w e b . m i t . e d u / 1 2 . 0 0 0 / w w w / m 2 0 0 9 / t e a m s / 2 / d a n b e e . h t m N & h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / i n d e x . a s p U D K 6 h t t p : / / w w w . n a t - h a z a r d s - e a r t h - s y s t - s c i . n e t / 7 / 1 4 1 / 2 0 0 7 / * 0 H ' h t t p : / / i o c 3 . u n e s c o . o r g / T s u n a m i T e a c h e r / G E 2 h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 Y B * h t t p : / / w w w . g i t e w s . o r g / i n d e x . p h p ? i d = 2 3 & L = 1 / 1 ? h t t p : / / w w w . g e o h a z . o r g / + < ; h t t p : / / e c . e u r o p a . e u / e n v i r o n m e n t / w a t e r / f l o o d _ r i s k / i n d e x . h t m ) x 9 G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t } b 6 G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / N A E / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D J K L 9 ? O p e n D o c u m e n t m m 3 G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t A u t h o r # A u t h o r G 0 2 h t t p : / / w w w . m e d i n g e g n e r i a . i t / p a g e . j s p ? i d P a g i n a = 5 9 6 } g - U h t t p : / / w w w . v u b . a c . b e / A P N A / s t a f f / F D G / p u b / D a h d o u h - G u e b a s _ 2 0 0 6 _ M c G r a w - H i l l Y B S c i T e c h . p d f O * 6 h t t p : / / w w w . s p r i n g e r l i n k . c o m / c o n t e n t / 7 2 6 6 2 6 5 2 0 7 2 x 0 r 7 2 / H ' h t t p : / / t s u n a m i . j r c . i t / m o d e l / $ 9 h t t p : / / w w w . s c i e n c e m a g . o r g / c g i / c o n t e n t / f u l l / 3 0 9 / 5 7 3 7 / 1 0 3 6 9 } ! 4 h t t p : / / w w w . a g u . o r g / j o u r n a l s / g l / g l 0 6 2 1 / 2 0 0 6 G L 0 2 7 5 3 3 / o a h t t p : / / w w w . a b i . o r g . u k / d i s p l a y / F i l e / C h i l d / 5 5 4 / S t r a t e g i c _ P l a n n i n g _ f o r _ F l o o d _ R i s k _ t h a m e s g a t e w a y . p d f m m G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t A u t h o r # A u t h o r X M 2 h t t p : / / w w w . f a o . o r g / f o r e s t r y / c o a s t a l p r o t e c t i o n / e n / m m G h t t p : / / w w w . n a e . e d u / n a e / b r i d g e c o m . n s f / w e b l i n k s / M K E Z - 6 D F Q Z W ? O p e n D o c u m e n t A u t h o r # A u t h o r 4 < 4 h t t p : / / w w w . u n i s d r . o r g / p p e w / t s u n a m i / p p e w - t s u n a m i . h t m
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