ࡱ> sbjbjVV8h<<k3 """""6668nll6_+FF"hhh###+++++++/1f+"###^##+""hh(+'''#"h"h+'#+''VF*@*h/F6%*(*/+0_+* 3& 3* 3"*4'###++x' ###_+#### 3######### :NEAMTWS DEVELOPMENT PLAN (14 November 2011) 1. Background This section reviews developments to date in the design and implementation of the NEAMTWS and outlines future plans taking account of the slower than expected progress achieved, the architecture of IOC tsunami warning systems in other regions, and changes in national plans. Following the initial decision in 2005 to set up NEAMTWS much effort has been devoted to developing the elements of a warning system. It was originally envisaged that implementation would be in two phases, an initial system to be in place by the end of 2007 followed by implementation of a full system to be completed by the end of 2011. The main objective of the initial phase was to have in place a system for dealing with tsunamis having destructive potential far from the source, i.e. with impact times longer than 30 minutes after the first alert that a tsunami may have been generated. At the end of the second phase the system would be capable of producing alerts for locations within 10 minutes travel time of the source. Other sea-level related hazards such as storm surges and extreme waves would also be encompassed within this second phase. Four working groups were set up to examine different aspects of the system and, where possible, to put in place plans for addressing the needs of their particular area: (1) Hazard Assessment, Risk and Modelling; (2) Seismic and Geophysical Measurements; (3) Sea Level Data Collection and Exchange, including Offshore Tsunami Detection and Instruments; and (4) Advisory, Mitigation and Public Awareness. The results of the activities of these groups is documented in the NEAMTWS Implementation Plan (IOC, 2009) which also describes the scope of the system being designed and the particular characteristics of the geographical region, e.g. a combination of distinct sea and ocean basins with widely varying probabilities of tsunami occurrence and impact. Although the groups made significant progress in addressing a number of technical issues from their own perspectives it was recognized that effort was also needed to address the overall system architecture that would enable integration of the various components into a working system in which the first seismic information from an earthquake would be corroborated by oceanographic information with transmission of appropriate messages based on carefully formulated decision matrices. Moreover, as well as the complexity of the geological and oceanographic domains there was the added difficulty of how to get the many interested parties working together in a way that acknowledged the varying levels of capability to contribute to the programme. It was therefore decided to set up a Task Team in January 2007 to advise on this end-to-end system aspect. The original concept was to establish, where possible, National Tsunami Warning Centres in each country responsible for issuing warnings to the relevant authorities in the Member State. In addition, some of the Centres were envisaged to act as Regional Tsunami Watch Centres with responsibilities for providing tsunami alerts in particular regions beyond that of their own Member States. However, following further consideration that also took account of developments by other ICGs and recommendations by TOWS encouraging standardization where appropriate, the concept which has evolved is that of Tsunami Watch Providers and Tsunami Watch Recipients. Tsunami Watch Providers are those NTWCs willing and able to provide tsunami alert information to other Member States at designated Forecast Points; Watch Recipients are those Tsunami Warning Focal Points choosing to receive such information; usually they will themselves be NTWCs. In order to be recognized as part of NEAMTWS, Tsunami Watch Providers must meet a number of requirements and be approved by the ICG of NEAMTWS. Until these conditions are met they will be referred to as Candidate Tsunami Watch Providers. A key aspect of this approach is that Tsunami Watch Providers do not have designated geographical areas of responsibility. Member States will have the freedom to decide from which candidate Tsunami Watch Provider(s) they would like to receive tsunami watch messages. A Member State will be able to receive tsunami watch messages from more than one Provider. The details of this approach are captured in the Operational Users Guide, currently available in an interim form, which is intended to be a living document available to Tsunami Watch Providers and Watch Recipients for reference during training exercises and actual tsunami events. Contents include: the roles of Tsunami Watch Providers and Tsunami Watch Recipients, the requirements that must be filled for any organisation wishing to be a candidate Tsunami Watch Provider, and details of the different message types and their contents that will be made available by them. Several countries have expressed interest in acting as Tsunami Watch Providers but for a variety of reasons, some technical and some funding-related, none of these is fully operational at present. We are therefore faced with a situation in which the original two-phase implementation is no longer sufficient. Instead, it is probable that Tsunami Watch Providers will achieve full functionality at different times. It was therefore concluded (at ICG-VI in November 2009) that a third NEAMTWS document was necessary in addition to the Implementation Plan and Interim Operational Users Guide. Known as the Development Plan, this would describe how the system is evolving, taking account of changed circumstances and the reduced rate of progress made. One advantage of this approach is that it enables certain parts of the Implementation Plan to be updated without replacing the Implementation Plan itself. The present document is the result of this process; Table 1 shows the relationship between the three documents. Although this approach differs from the organization of documentation adopted by the other ICGs it should be noted that the overall scope and philosophy of approach is similar. Also, opportunity has been taken to make provision for adding material as the system further evolves to encompass the multi-hazard approach to warning systems. Table 1: Complementarity between Development Plan, Implementation Plan and Interim Operational Users Guide. Development PlanImplementation PlanInterim Operational Users GuideObjectivesTo document overall development of NEAMTWS and guide its future developmentTo specify detailed requirements of the design and implementation of NEAMTWSTo specify the detailed requirements for centres, contact points and message contentScopeAddresses evolution towards fully functioning system, taking account of barriers in implementing original designAction plans for all components (hazard assessment, seismic measurements, sea level monitoring, advisories and awareness)Roles and requirements for Tsunami Watch Providers, NTWCs, national focal points etc. Decision matrix for alerts, specification of content of different messagesIntended audienceICG and all its WGs, TTsICG and all its WGs, TTsStaff at Tsunami Watch Providers, NTWCs, national focal points and civil protection agenciesResponsibility for authorshipArchitecture TTArchitecture TT + 4 WGsArchitecture TT + Communication Test Exercise TTTimeframePresent until full system implemented and tested (currently end-2013)OngoingOngoingReview processUpdate every 12 months approved by ICGRolling updates approved by ICG officersRolling updates approved by ICG officers 2. Present status of NEAMTWS At the time of writing (November 2011) the system architecture for NEAMTWS consists of the following: 5 Candidate Tsunami Watch Providers and a back-up seismic information centre. Various countries are developing National Tsunami Warning Centres, some as part of a wider multi-hazard warning framework. Most countries have declared TWFPs and TNCs but these need to be reviewed. The latest available plans of each candidate Tsunami Watch Provider are summarized below. 2.1 France By January 2012 a warning centre will be activated in CEA; the centre will not issue official warnings but will conduct warning tests with the Civil Defense and local authorities. It is expected that the national centre will be operational by July 2012, with its monitoring area covering the North-eastern Atlantic, the Western Mediterranean, and the Tyrrhenian. At that time France will also be able to act as a Tsunami Watch Provider. There have been important advances in the sea level network: of the 31 stations planned for May 2012 23 are transmitting in real time, 5 via internet and via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS), included 2 new stations implemented in Corsica. Exchange of data with Portugal and Spain is in place and Italy and Germany is in place by internet and soon by MPLS. 2.2 Greece In Greece, the National Observatory of Athens - Institute of Geodynamics (NOA-IG) has been formally established by law as the Hellenic NTWC. At the HL-NTWC there is a 24/7 operation control room with a 24/7 link to the Greek General Secretary for Civil Protection and the Earthquake Planning and Protection Organisation. Current developments with the establishment of the HL-NTWC concern the following: Coordination of all seismic networks in Greece under NOA-IG currently comprising more than 130 broadband seismic stations. By adding collaborative stations in the major Eastern Mediterranean region the HL-NTWC has a number of around 150 broadband seismic stations available in real time. The upgrade of the German Geophysics Research Centre (GFZ)(GEOFON network) seismic stations in Greece has been finalized and the stations are available to the NEAMTWS backup centre. At the HL-NTWC there is available a newly established accelerometric network comprising of over 250 stations operating also in real time, serving a vital role for strong magnitude events (M>6.5) in the greater region. Incorporation of 21 tide gauge stations of the HNHS (Hellenic Navy Hydrographic Service) with data available via a common plugin (homogenized monitoring), actually in the testing phase. 4 are presently available to IOC via ftp communication procedure. The functioning of a DART clone tsunami sensor at Pylos submarine observatory with link to the HL-NTWC. The upgrade of the current seismic network with the deployment of accelerographs or the addition of one accelerometer per station, thus further standardizing the existing seismic stations. The preparation of a database of hundreds of pre-computed scenarios of tsunami propagation identifying target areas is ongoing using MOST. At NOA-IG a network of continuous 15 GPS stations with data to rapidly detect uplift and subsidence is also under expansion, trying also to combine existing CGPS stations operating off line for research purposes by upgrading them to real time operation and link to the HL-NTWC. Standardization of tide gauge data exchange procedures for the Hellenic NTWC with other national contributors is under development, in order to include all available tide gauge stations upgraded from off line research to operational real time stations. A second DPS has been considered for installation at a new site East of Crete, another DART clone. Moreover there are also plans for the acquisition of another true DART for the Aegean and Southern Crete. A framework of cooperation with JRC has been established in setting up a database of scenarios (MOD1) developed by JRC and installed in collaboration with HL-NTWC, with a further improved (MOD2) database of scenarios under development within the same framework. The set of scenarios enables HL-NTWC to estimate wave arrival times and wave heights near the coast. It is also installed a specific tool (TAT, developed by JRC) to analyze tsunamis and assist in the issue of messages according to the expected severity of tsunami. Finally it should be added that funds for a new project has been secured and this should be completed within the next two years. It will include a new Advance Seismic Network with 90 new stations distributed evenly in the Greek region, in addition to the existing seismic networks, with broadband seismometers and accelerometers and a Network of 20 new tide gauge stations including CGPS at each site. This will be a major contribution to the new HL-NTWC and its offer to serve as a Tsunami Watch Provider in 2012. 2.3 Italy The geographical area of interest of the DPC encompasses the Central Mediterranean (Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Albania, Libya, Tunisia, Montenegro, and Bosnia-Herzegovina). The Italian system is a synergy of three different institutions: the National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) (with 24/7 service) and the High Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA) provide technical support to the DPC (which has a 24/7 service). The Ministry of Foreign Affairs plays also a role in relation to international cooperation. The inter-agency relationship and roles between DPC (as TWFP), INGV and ISPRA have been finalized and agreements have been signed. Preliminary activities in preparation for Tsunami Watch Provider services have involved historical event analysis, source area identification (e.g., Algeria and Greece, exchanging data from Sicily), and scenario formulation. The DPC and ISPRA Have added 5 new tide gauges, and 6 existing tide gauges have been upgraded for tsunami detection; The national network of tide gauges available for tsunami warning has thus been raised to 25 stations. Concerning the seismic network, Italy relies on the INGV and MedNet networks and a network of 41 Italian operative entities and scientific entities (functional and competent centres). Solutions for formalizing relations with other Candidate Tsunami Watch Providers and with NTWCs need to be identified with the assistance of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and IOC. Elements of the national system still remain to be finalised before the schedule for operation of the national centre and availability as a Tsunami Watch Provider can be set. 2.4 Portugal The Portuguese NTWC comprises a set of sequential operations on data collection and analysis from the earthquake occurrence to the preparation and issuing of messages to the Civil Protection Authorities. The three main components of the system are the seismic network, the tsunami detection/analysis and the issuing of message to the civil authorities. Instituto de Meteorologia runs the national seismic network and is the candidate to host the NTWC. Currently, the Portuguese seismic network is collecting data from 54 broad-band stations, 24 S-P stations, and 29 accelerometers through which the hypocenter of an earthquake can be determined in less than 5 minutes. Seiscomp3 will is likely to will become the primary system to be used in the seismic detection. The tide gauge network includes 5 stations transmitting in real-time/near-real time 4 of them being accessed by Internet and another one from the GTS system. Both datasets are converted to miniseed and managed through the same Seiscomp platform used for seismic data. It is expected in the coming months to double the number of online tide-gauges by adding 3 new stations from Instituto Hidrografico, 1 real-time station from Morocco (already installed by CNRST) and another one from IM which is about to be installed at Azores. With the new data service provided by Ostende/GLOSS it will be possible to expand the tide-gauge data availability at IM data center, particularly stations from Spain, France, UK and Ireland In respect of tsunami modeling, and in the framework of a cooperation with JRC, a database of more than 6000 scenarios was developed and installed at IM. It covers the region from Azores to Gibraltar and magnitudes from 6.5 to 8.75. This set of scenarios enabled IM to estimate wave arrival times and wave heights near the coast. It also installed a specific tool (TAT, developed by JRC) to analyze tsunamis and assist in the issue messages according to the expected severity of the tsunami. During 2011 the PT government decided to create a new institute, merging IM with a fisheries institute and also to integrate marine geology activities. This and the fact that a formal decision on funding for the NTWC has yet to be made means that it is not possible to identify a date when Portugal will be ready to offer Tsunami Watch Provider services. However, it remains a candidate. 2.5 Turkey KOERI is a 24/7 operational center and its seismic Network comprises 118 BB, 21 SP, and 35 strong motion instruments, including Earthquake Early Warning System for Istanbul, and Sea Bottom Observation System in Marmara Sea. Both zSacWin and SeisComp3 software are utilized at the National Earthquake Monitoring Center of KOERI. Based on an agreement with the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (DEMP), data from 10 BB stations located in the Aegean and Mediterranean Coast is now transmitted in real time to KOERI. Real-time data transmission from 6 primary and 10 auxiliary stations from the International Monitoring System will be in place in the very near future based on an agreement concluded with CTBTO in March 2011. In an agreement with a major Turkish GSM company, KOERI is enlarging its strong-motion network to promote real-time seismology and to extend Earthquake Early Warning system countrywide. 25 accelerometers (included in the number given above) have been purchased and installed at Base Transceiver Station Sites in coastal regions within the scope of this initiative. A collaborative agreement has been signed with JRC and MOD1 Tsunami Scenario Database and TAT (Tsunami Analysis Tool) are received by KOERI and user training was provided. The database and the tool are expected to be linked to SeisComp3 and be operational by November 2011. In addition KOERI is continuing the work towards providing contributions to JRC in order to develop MOD2, and also continuing work related to the development of its own scenario database 2010 using NAMI DANCE Tsunami Simulation and Visualization Software (developed by Profs Andrey Zaytsev, Ahmet Cevdet Yalciner, Anton Chernov, Efim Pelinovsky and Andrey Kurkin). KOERI has updated the Tsunami Forecast Points and will submit to IOC before NEAMTWS-VIII. One tide gauge station in Marmara Sea is transmitting data to KOERI using satellite connection and infrastructure work concerning the remaining two will be finalized soon. KOERI is working on making all tide-gauge stations operated by General Command of Mapping available in real-time in 2012. In cooperation with Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS), KOERI has its own GTS system now and connected to GTS via its own satellite hub. The system has been successfully utilized during ECTE1. A Decision Support System is being developed to integrate all components (modules) to enable the dissemination of bulletins. KOERI now has a close cooperation with DEMP (Turkish Civil Protection Agency) and providing support to a working group established within DEMP to address issues such as National Procedures, National Tsunami Response Plan and National Tsunami Exercises. DEMP has also actively participated in ECTE1 as a TWFP. According to the National Earthquake Strategy and Action Plan 2023 announced by the Turkish Government in August, KOERI is the responsible organization for TWC. NTWC will be operational as of 1 January 2012 with its monitoring area covering Eastern Mediterranean, Aegean and Black Sea. At that time, KOERI will also be ready to operate as a Candidate Tsunami Watch Provider. 2.6 Back-up seismic information centre Although not permanently operating on 24/7 basis, GFZ offers to act as a seismic background data collection and processing centre for NEAMTWS. This role includes collecting seismic real-time data from public and private sources over Internet and its private VSAT hub including the data streams from the dedicated VSAT backbone seismic network operating a global earthquake monitoring system issuing very rapidly automatic solutions providing its SeisComP3 software to the candidate Tsunami Watch Providers and to organize operational support providing the collected real-time data feeds and automatic and manual processing results to the candidate Tsunami Watch Providers providing rapid access to its comprehensive seismic data archive of EuroMed and global data providing a platform for the rapid internal exchange of seismic processing results among the candidate Tsunami Watch Providers 3. Summary and interim plans pending fully operational Tsunami Watch Provider services From the above it can be seen that whereas it had been envisaged that by ICG-VI in November 2009 the first entity to provide tsunami watch information would have been established, the present scenario is that no approved Tsunami Watch Providers are yet in place. Until such a position is reached, a minimum objective is for the candidate Tsunami Watch Providers to be compatible with the criteria given in the Operational Users Guide, relying on available solutions and fully implementing the concept of Tsunami Warning Focal Points (TWFPs). The TWFPs have begun to participate in text and image message tests to verify their capacities (see Section 5). Moreover, a procedure needs to be developed for approval of Tsunami Watch Providers within NEAMTWS. This will be developed by a new Accreditation Task Team, following ICG-VIII. In addition, GFZ will continue to provide seismic information throughout the region. It is highly desirable that TWFPs should make arrangements to receive information from GFZ directly. While the Tsunami Watch Provider system is being implemented, the GFZ system may be the only official source of large-area, tsunami-related information in the NEAM region. However, this will be for seismic information only so a procedure will be required at NTWCs to determine whether a tsunami has been generated, what alert should be issued and on what basis it will be cancelled. At present, it is envisaged that a fully operational NEAMTWS, that is with a system of Tsunami Watch Providers providing information for NTWCs through TWFPs, will not be in place before the end of 2013. After that the GFZ system will revert to a background seismic system.. 4. Data from organisations outside the region In any potential tsunami situation following a major earthquake there is the probability that information will be received from organizations that are not part of the formal tsunami warning system for that region. This includes other IOC regional tsunami centres as well as the news networks. Procedures for dealing with this need to be considered in advance and particularly so for NEAM where a complete official system will not be in place for some years. The most likely scenario is that a large earthquake will be detected in the NEAM region the seismic parameters of which are made widely available through various communication channels including the internet. The NEAM Tsunami Watch Providers/Watch Recipients need to develop procedures for responding to such a situation where the data come from unexpected sources so that quick communication to civil protection agencies can be established and the necessary advice can be given, including the issuing and cancellation of watches and warnings. 5. Test Exercises 5.1 Communications Test Exercises During ICG-VI it was decided that procedures for testing the communication of tsunami alert messages between participating NTWCs and TWFPs should be developed and implemented in a series of exercises. Responsibility for planning Phase 1 of the exercises was given to a dedicated Task Team on Communications Test Exercises (TT-CTE). Two have been carried out (June and September 2010) restricted to close to functioning NTWCs and using email and fax only. The exercises were found to be very useful and both yielded information which has led to changed procedures and a number of recommendations These include: use of GTS in future exercises, use of multiple phone lines in parallel to speed up fax delivery, agreed definition of reference time used to issue tsunami message, more accurate reporting of time at which faxes are received, clarification of rules used for numbering test messages. ICG-VII agreed that a second phase of CTEs should be planned involving all candidate Tsunami Watch Providers, NTWCs and TWFPs in the NEAM region. The challenge of disseminating the messages to a much larger number of recipients is not simple and careful planning and evaluation of required resources will be needed. It was agreed that a new Task Team should be set up responsible not only for the planning and conduct of these communications tests but also for Tsunami Warning Exercises (see 5.2). The Task Team on Communications Test and Tsunami Exercises accordingly planned the first Enlarged Communications Test Exercise which was carried out on 10 August 2011. Results will be published in IOC Technical Series No. 98. Overall, the test was successful but some addressees did not receive faxes. In order to investigate this further another exercise was conducted by fax and GTS only on 26 October with dissemination restricted to those recipients that had encountered problems the first time. 5.2 Tsunami Warning Exercises ICG-VII approved the suggestion that a first Tsunami Warning Exercise be planned, the aim being to carry it out in 2012. This would be based on a realistic tsunami scenario and seek to involve the civil protection authorities in Member States as much as possible. Planning for this exercise (known as NEAMWave12) is the responsibility of the CT & TE Task Team but had to be approved at ICG-VIII NEAMWave12 will enable the effectiveness of the Tsunami Watch Provider/Watch Recipient concept to be tested in the particular circumstances of the NEAM region. Particular attention will be paid to comparisons at Tsunami Forecast Points in those cases where information is provided by more than one Tsunami Watch Provider. 6. Further developments: multi-hazard approach Some Member States, particularly in northern Europe, will not be developing stand-alone tsunami warning systems but will integrate the functionality within existing or planned multi-hazard warning systems. These are envisaged to include other phenomena affecting sea level, and hence may cause coastal inundation, such as storm surges and extreme waves. The potential for increasing cost-effectiveness by sharing infrastructure and building on links to civil protection authorities has to be weighed against possible disadvantages in diluting the focus on the particular characteristics of the threat from tsunami, e.g. the extremely short response times. Therefore, the issues associated with this approach need further consideration and it was agreed at ICG-VII that they be addressed by a new Task Team on the Multi-hazard Approach to Coastal Inundation. At the first meeting of the group actions were agreed to: (1) identify relevant existing warning systems at national and European level; 2) explore the scope for linkages with these; and, 3) assess the mutual value of interacting with the various frameworks for coastal inundation mapping such as the EU Floods Directive. 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