ࡱ> ^`[\] bjbjVVK<<9, , uuuuuTa$a\!HiL! ! ! [[[[[[[$G_a[u)  ))[uuh[*444)uu[4)[44UX,.VW"[%\<a\*Wub21hubDXubuX! # 4;%&! ! ! [[3H! ! ! a\))))ub! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ,  ;:  WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION ________________________  INTERGOVERNMENTAL OCEANOGRAPHIC COMMISSION (OF UNESCO) ________________________ Services and Forecast Systems Program Area Coordination Group SIXTH session SEOUL, REPUBLIC OF KOREA, 8 TO 11 NOVEMBER 2011SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3 (31.X.2011) __________ ITEM 4.3 Original: ENGLISH Marine and Coastal Hazards (Submitted by ETWS Chair and WMO Secretariat) Summary and Purpose of Document This document contains a brief summary of the progress of JCOMM activities regarding this issue, including the joint JCOMM/CHy project on Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP). It also contains a draft JCOMM-IV document. ACTION PROPOSED The Group is invited to: Take note of the information for the relevant discussion and for the deliberation on input to JCOMM-IV; Provide guidance on the Commissions intersessional workplans to enhance its activity in this area. ______________________ References:  HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/components/com_oe/oe.php?task=download&id=14245&version=1.0&lang=1&format=1" Final Report of the 9th session of the JCOMM Management Committee (JCOMM-MR-88) Appendices: A. Draft SFSPA input to JCOMM-IV/Doc 8.2 (Supports for Disaster Risk Reduction, Particularly in Coastal Zones) B. Working Paper for CGMS on Requirements of Satellite Information for Coastal Inundation Forecasting and Warning DISCUSSION At its 16th Congress (2011), WMO noted the increasingly pro-active approach of JCOMM to address priority issues under disaster management programmes, in particular related to coastal and marine hazards. The key role of the Commission is described as the coordination/support for developing and improving forecasting capabilities and service delivery in coastal risk reduction. Capacity development is a critical aspect for coastal hazard forecasting and warning. At JCOMM-III (2009), Members / Member States emphasized that consideration should be given to workshops on marine services including links to public weather services and disaster risk reduction aspects, with a focus on regions of specific concern, such as coastal inundation in vulnerable low-lying areas. JCOMMs efforts need to be focused on: Preparation and management of technical guidance material: A Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting is finally published, which is expected to be an important reference for related training and technology sharing. Enhanced support for the time-bound demonstration/pilot projects, with regional focus: for example, the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP). Strengthened liaison and contacts with the relevant Programmes. Safety Information Services for Coastal/Sea States A major marine weather-related threat in both open ocean and coastal areas is due to complex sea states. Forecasts of ocean wave parameters to describe these situations are required, as well as associated terminology to be used in weather and sea state bulletins to be disseminated through SafetyNET and NAVTEX or other services to SOLAS and non-SOLAS vessels. At JCOMM-III (2009), the ETMSS and ETWS were requested to develop proposals for inclusion of information on complex sea states in weather and sea bulletins providing such information, eventually to amend the WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (WMO-No. 558). Services provided for the Arctic and sub-Arctic (e.g. Baltic Sea) coastal zones are close to those for the high-sea and are intended to support both efficiency and safety of marine operations. Safety of marine operations is typically referred to ice-free navigation and is supported by the routine NAVTEX and SafetyNET messages, bulletins and warnings prepared by the national ice and meteorological services and issued twice daily or as required using HF or Inmarsat transmission with retransmission through the WMO GTS. From June 2011 a new schema of the Arctic METAREA XVII-XXI Sub-Areas is in effect for SafetyNET and NAVTEX information preparation and dissemination. Standards for content of meteorological messages and bulletins are set up by the WMO No. 558 and its amendments for sea ice (see JCOMM ETSI-IV Meeting report No.74 and 3rd Ice Analysts Workshop report, WMO/Td. No. XX). Efficiency of operations including ice navigation is gained in the majority of cases through a customer-oriented approach and is supported by an additional set of operational analytical and prognostic ice, hydrological and meteorological products also provided by the national ice and meteorological services. The following types of information may be available to users as part of this additional service if transmission is not restricted to HF and Inmarsat SafetyNET: routine ice charts with daily weekly periodicity, providing regional recommendations (graphic HFax product); routine and customized ice charts with various complexity, scale and periodicity (hours - 7 days), providing tactical and regional recommendations (binary SIGRID-3/JPEG/S-57/etc product); high-resolution annotated satellite imagery, commonly providing tactical recommendations to the masters (1 hour 1 day) (binary product); prognostic (hours - 7 days) ice charts for ice parameters critical for safety and success of navigation (binary product); supplementary synoptic and prognostic (hours - 7 days) hydrological buletins (water level information), meteorological charts or grids (binary or textual products); medium to long-term ice and meteorological phenomena forecasts with a lead-time of more than 7 days (commonly based on empirical models) (mostly textual products). The following major differences for the Arctic coastal waters and high-sea services may be noted: necessity for higher resolution analysis (ice charts, ice edge) and observations (satellite imagery) and finer grid numerical modelling higher attention to fast-ice, lake ice and dynamical processes necessity for sea level and currents information in particular for estuary zones. Requirements for sea-ice and supporting parameters are included in the WMO RRR and are monitored by JCOMM ETSI and the International Ice Charting Working Group (Ice Information Services: Socio-Economic Benefits and Earth Observation Requirements,  HYPERLINK "http://nsidc.org/noaa/iicwg/pdf/" http://nsidc.org/noaa/iicwg/pdf/). Storm Surge Watch Scheme The concept of the Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) was recommended and endorsed at the 60th WMO Executive Council (EC-LX, June 2008), after the devastation by storm surges associated with the Tropical Cyclones Sidr and Nargis in the Bay of Bengal. Since its frontier implementation in the WMO RA V (South Pacific and South-East Indian Ocean) in 2008, the WMO Marine Meteorology and Oceanography Programme (MMOP, which receives overall technical guidance and governance from JCOMM) and the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) has been jointly coordinating the efforts for extension of the SSWS to all regions exposed to tropical cyclones, particularly to incorporate the Scheme in the tropical cyclone advisory arrangements, regional operational plans and manuals. At present, in the Scheme, the following advices and services are provide to the concerned region: the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for Tropical Cyclone, New Delhi, provides storm surge advisory service, since 2009, in cooperation with Indian Institute of Technology (IIT); RSMC Tokyo started provision of the storm surge forecast map since 2011; RSMC La Runion implemented a study on the application of Mto-Frances storm surge model for the RA I (Africa). Noting that the key to the successful implementation of the SSWS is to enhance the storm surge warning capabilities on a national level, JCOMM and TCP have continued to organize the series of the training workshops for storm surge and wave forecasting. Since the MAN-VIII (2010), the 6th Storm Surge Workshop was held in Dominican Republic (February 2011) for the Hurricane Committee Members in Caribbean region. The 7th Storm Surge Workshop is being organized in Macao China (October 2011), for the Members of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones in Asia-Pacific region (see  HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/SSW7" http://www.jcomm.info/SSW7). It is expected to continue the effort to cover every Member / Member States subject to tropical cyclones. The members of the JCOMM Expert Team on Wind Waves and Storm Surges (ETWS) have been playing the key role in providing training material and lectures. JCOMM/CHy project on Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project Pursuant to Recommendation 6 (JCOMM-III), the Coastal Inundation Forecast Demonstration Project (CIFDP) was initiated jointly by JCOMM and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy) in 2009, aiming to develop a comprehensive and integrated approach for marine multi-hazard forecasting and warning systems and coastal risk management, as well as the application of the concept of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) to coastal zones. The Project has recently regained momentum, particularly for its implementation in the Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh). The Project Steering Group (PSG), chaired by Drs Val Swail and Don Resio, have been working to streamline the concept and overarching implementation plan, of which the results are summarized on the Project website:  HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP" http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP. The Expert Team on Wind Waves and Storm Surges (ETWS) plays the leading role to provide technical advice, guidance and coordination through the PSG. A side meeting on CIFDP was held during the 16th WMO Congress (27 May 2011); the meeting was well attended by WMO Members and relevant Commissions/Programmes including Australia, Bangladesh, British Caribbean Territories, China, Malaysia, Oman, Republic of Korea, Senegal, Thailand, CAgM and CBS. The Permanent Representative of Bangladesh to WMO (Director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department: BMD) expressed her great satisfaction and support to the recent development of this project, and her willingness to support developing a sub-project in Bangladesh (for Bay of Bengal region). The CIFDP is being designed and moving toward the implementation with a clear strategy, that : A sub-project will be launched for a country that meets the essential requirement for initiating a national agreement - between national institutions with related duties, such as forecasting, warning, and disaster management and a provisional establishment of a sub-project National Implementation Team (NIT) that includes operator(s) of the NMHS. This is defined as Phase 0 of the CIFDP Implementation Plan (see the project website on the afore-mentioned address); Users perspectives and requirements should be considered from the initial phase of the sub-project development; Only existing and available open source techniques will be considered, taking into account the identified national/regional requirements and gaps. Final products of the Demonstration Project should be operated and maintained by a national operational agency which has the responsibility/authority of storm surge warning and flood warning The developed procedure / best practice through a sub-project should be applicable to other (neighbouring) countries with common issues and interest Each sub-project should be closely linked / cooperating with the related projects and activities (e.g. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project: SWFDP, and contribution to the SSWS) for synergies. As a kick-off, a sub-project is being developed for Bangladesh (Phase 1). The BMD will host a stakeholders workshop in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from 6 to 9 December 2011, for which a provisional programme is reproduced in Appendix A. Expected outcome of this workshop includes: a Definitive National Agreement (DNA) for CIFDP implementation in Bangladesh; a set of requirements for improved coastal inundation forecasting in Bangladesh / Bay of Bengal; and an outline for a detailed Implementation Plan of a Bangladesh sub-project for CIFDP (including the choice for technical solutions to address national/regional requirements), to be a baseline for a project proposal to funding agencies. The NIT in cooperation with the PSG will complete the Plan soon after the workshop. A sub-project for Dominican Republic (Caribbean region) is also being initiated, with the participation of the Oficina Nacional de Meteorologa (ONAMET: Dominican National Meteorological Service), the National Institute for Hydrology (INDHRI), the Ministryon coastal matters and the relevant governmental/research institutions. It is proposed to host a stakeholders workshop in the Dominican Republic, similar to that of Bangladesh, from 12 to 16 December 2011. Strong national participation (leading the NIT in collaboration with the PSG) and extrabudgetary contributions for expert activities are necessary to successfully implement the Project. The Committee is invited to discuss the intersessional work plan regarding the CIFDP, in particular, to support SFSPA/ETWS and PSG activities. The Committee is also invited to advise on ways to further extend Commissions close collaboration with the concerned NMHSs, regional bodies, other Commissions and external programmes for the development and application of the CIFDP. Joint Initiatives with Related Programmes for Scientific and Technical Development WMO, through relevant JCOMM teams and experts, has been interacting with the IOC Integrated Coastal Area Management (ICAM) programme, and contributing to the preparation of the UNESCO/IOC publication Hazard Awareness and Risk Mitigation in Integrated Coastal Area Management (ICAM) (UNESCO/IOC Guides & Manuals No. 50; ICAM Dossier No. 5). Following the recommendation at JCOMM-III (2009) to continue this interaction and collaboration, WMO is co-sponsoring the activities of a new Technical Working Group (TWG) to prepare a set of guidelines and review of best practices in the identification/formulation of adaptation and mitigations strategies and plans, including a critical assessment of various technical measures (including soft and hard engineering) that lower the risk and actual losses from marine related hazards, including climate change impacts such as SLR, erosion. The group is drawn from international experts, covering a wide range of relevant disciplines (such as integrated coastal management, risk assessment, hazard mitigation strategies, coastal engineering, land planner, socio-economists), and include representatives from international organisations. This group will work for the next 12 months and the new guidelines are expected to be completed at the end of 2012. Following the request at JCOMM-III (2009), the Committee is invited to consider/investigate other possible areas of collaboration, particularly to extend the engagement of the Members / Member States such as pilot projects. JCOMM, through the ETWS, has also been interacting with UNESCO under the framework of the UNESCO project on  HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=135&Itemid=37" \l "UNESCO-NIO" Enhancing regional capabilities for Coastal Hazards Forecasting and Data Portal Systems, thereby achieving considerable synergy with the CIFDP and SSWS programs. Surface wind waves were identified in the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as one of the key drivers in the coastal zone, but little information was available on projected changes under future climate scenarios. The main focus was on the influence of sea-level rise and inundation effects. IPCC Working Group II recognised that risks to coastal population and ecosystems require inclusion of a broader range of coastal drivers of change. One of the key drivers, which has received insufficient attention to date, is wind-waves. Noting the critical importance of the assessments of potential changes in wave climate, the JCOMM and WCRP jointly supported the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Projections (COWCLIP) workshop, held at WMO in Geneva, 11-13 April, 2011. A key recommended objective of COWCLIP is coordination of global wave projections for intercomparison between international research groups, to understand uncertainty within the community ensemble of wave climate projections. Initial intercomparison experiments are being undertaken with a view to include wave parameters in greater detail in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). JCOMM, mainly through the Expert Team on Wind Wave and Storm Surge (ETWS), continues to co-organize International Workshops on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and Coastal Hazard Symposia ( HYPERLINK "http://www.waveworkshop.org" http://www.waveworkshop.org), with the Environment Canada and the US Army Engineer Research and Development Centers Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory. These workshops provide the principle opportunities to the JCOMM community for technical discussion on wave hindcasting and forecasting, as well as the latest scientific development on coastal applications and hazard warnings. In close collaboration with the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) WMO facilitated the access to the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for the Regional Tsunami Warning Systems (TWS) and the national Tsunami Warning Focal Points (TWFP) nominated therein for swift and secure warning dissemination and access to real-time tide gauge data. Communication tests have been conducted in all four regional TWS with the most recent test conducted on 10 August, 2011, among 31 Member States of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group for the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System. However, most TWFPs, especially in Europe, are not national weather services and thus dont have direct access to GTS. Thus only 9 of the 31 counties could report on GTS reception. First results show that email messages are the swiftest communication method with a Median delivery time of 20 seconds, followed by FAX (Median: 5:00 minutes) and GTS (Median: 5:16) with very similar delivery latencies. Options to speed up the delivery times for the latter two will be explored by IOC in future. JCOMM has been delivering its set of requirements for satellite information to the Satellite Community through the Rolling Review of Requirement (Satellite component) and the EGOS implementation plan (including the "Statements of Guidance"), which include the Coordination Group for Meteorological Satellites (CGMS). The CGMS also deliberates ongoing issues through the working papers submitted by its members (i.e. national and international satellite agencies, national met agencies with capabilities/interest in satellite applications). It was considered to be useful to prepare and submit a working paper to the 39th CGMS meeting (planned in October, in St Petersburg, Russia) on requirements on coastal hazard forecasting and warnings, in order to explore possible support from CGMS members for the related activities of JCOMM. A draft for this working paper is introduced in Appendix B, for consideration and comments by the Management Committee. _____________ Appendices: 2 Draft SFSPA input to JCOMM-IV/Doc 8.2 (Supports for Disaster Risk Reduction, Particularly in Coastal Zones) The Commission recalled that both WMO and IOC recognized the increasing requirements of JCOMM in coordination/support for developing and improving forecasting capabilities and service delivery in coastal risk reduction. Also considering the emerging importance of coastal zones in delivering the climate services in the framework of GFCS, as well as the potential role of JCOMM in this area, the Commission agreed that JCOMM should set the work related to marine and coastal hazards as a priority during the next intersessional period (Recommendation). The Commission noted that the ETMSS and ETWS had been requested at JCOMM-III to develop proposals to include information on complex sea states as well as associated terminology in weather and sea bulletins to be disseminated through SafetyNET and NAVTEX. It encouraged the Teams to carry out this task during the intersessional period and thereafter (Action), with a view to including the amendment of the WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services (WMO-No. 558). The Commission noted that the Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) serves as a regional framework for technical advisories for coordinated operational services for storm surge forecasting and warning, which is the core element of JCOMM contribution to coastal hazard management. The practice was incorporated to that of the tropical cyclone advisory scheme, through the RSMCs for Tropical Cyclones, particularly in RA V (South Pacific / South-East Indian Ocean), RA II (Asia Pacific) and RA I (Africa). The Commission requested that JCOMM should continue its joint effort with the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) to support the SSWS, including the series of training workshop on storm surge and wave forecasting (Action). The Commission noted that the South and East African coast suffers from recurrent coastal inundation by storm surges. Taking into account the ongoing request from the region for technical support and training, as well as the recent dialogue at the Climate Change workshop and the effects on African Coastal communities (August 2011, South Africa), the Commission agreed to make further efforts to provide training opportunities in the region of concern, by holding the next JCOMM/TCP training workshop on storm surge and wave forecasting for the South/East African and West Indian Ocean countries (Action). The Commission emphasized the importance of capacity development in pursuing this line of work, as well as addressing the regional aspects. In this context, the Commission agreed that the Commission should continue preparing and updating technical guidance material such as the Guide to Storm Surge Forecasting (and its dynamic part) (Recommendation). It also recommended that the Commission should provide enhanced support for the time-bound demonstration/pilot projects addressing regional issues of concern, based on strong participation of the Members / Member States, in close coordination with relevant programmes (Recommendation). The Commission recognized the leading role of the Expert Team on Wind Waves and Storm Surges (ETWS) in this area, and requested the ETWS to extend its activities during the next interesessional period (Recommendation). Considering the recent interaction between the ETWS and the multi-hazard Task Team of the North-East Atlantic and Mediterranean Tsunami Warning System (NEAMTWS), the Commission also recognized that it might be timely to extend an invitation from JCOMM to the working groups and/or task teams of the Intergovernmental Coordination Groups of Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System. The IOC Working Group on Tsunamis and Other Hazards related to Sea Level Warning and Mitigation Systems (TOWS-WG) may be an appropriate group to partner with JCOMM in dealing with multi-hazard forecast and warning issues (Recommendation). The Commission recognized with appreciation the positive impacts of the training workshop series on storm surge and wave forecasting, which is jointly organized by JCOMM and WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). It therefore requested ETWS to continue co-sponsoring and co-organizing such training workshops in the future and expand to other regions, for the benefit of all Members/Member States exposed to these risks (Action). The Commission noted with appreciation the ETWS initiative in collaboration with the Expert Team on Marine Climatology (ETMC) to develop and maintain an Extreme Wave, and requested that the Teams continue their effort during the ineresessional period (Action). Following the recommendation from the First JCOMM Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (2007), the Commission also requested ETWS to continue to develop regional and global storm surge climatologies as a measure of risk assessment for marine hazards and assist Members/Member States in developing their own databases and hazard analysis (Action). JCOMM/CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) The Commission noted that, pursuant to Recommendation 6 (JCOMM-III), the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP,  HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP" http://www.jcomm.info/CIFDP) was initiated jointly by JCOMM and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy) in 2009 aiming to develop a comprehensive and integrated approach for marine multi-hazard forecasting and warning systems and coastal risk management. The Commission noted and endorsed a strategy of CIFDP, as following: The project would be implemented under each regional/national sub-project, launched for a country that meets the essential requirement for initiating a national agreement between national institutions with relevant responsibilities, and a provisional establishment of a National Coordination Team (NCT) that includes operator(s) of the NMHS. The project would be designed based on users perspectives and requirements, considering only existing and available open source techniques. Final products of the Demonstration Project should be operated and maintained by a national operational agency which has the responsibility/authority of storm surge warning and flood warning The developed procedure / best practice through a sub-project should be applicable to other (neighbouring) countries with common issues and interest, and to be closely linked / cooperating with the related projects and activities, such as the regional Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) in building the cascading forecasting process to produce services for coastal zones. The Commission noted with pleasure the recent progress of the first sub-project in the Bay of Bengal (Bangladesh). The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) hosted a Stakeholders Workshop in Dhaka, Bangladesh, from 28 November to 1 December 2011, with outcomes including: (i) a Definitive National Agreement (DNA) for CIFDP implementation in Bangladesh; (ii) a set of requirements for improved coastal inundation forecasting in Bangladesh / Bay of Bengal; and (iii) an outline for a detailed Implementation Plan of a Bangladesh sub-project, to be a baseline for a project proposal to funding agencies. A sub-project for Dominican Republic (Caribbean region) was also being initiated, with similar objectives and design. The Commission noted that strong national participation and extrabudgetary contributions for expert activities are necessary to successfully implement the Project, and therefore strongly encourage the NCTs of the sub-projects to closely work with the Project Steering Group (PSG) to implement CIFDP in respective country/region (Action). The Commission also encouraged Members / Member States with concerns of coastal inundation to consider participating in the Project (Recommendation). The Commission requested the NCT and PSG that, once the project was successfully implemented in the first sub-project, the established procedure and best practice should be well documented to guide Members / Member States of interest (Action). The Commission also recognized potential challenge of data availability (e.g. tide gauge measurements, bathymetry data) in the implementation of the Project and application of the results in the region, and requested the PSG and NCT to ensure the data to be available between involved national institutions for coastal inundation forecasting and warning (Action). The Commission noted the key role of SFSPA particularly its ETWS in the CIFDP design and implementation phases, and supported the strengthened support for this area by the Commission and by the Secretariat during the next intersessional period (Recommendation). The Commission also recommended that the ETWS members involved in the CIFDP/PSG should consider working with the GLOSS community and scientists in the relevant field to resume the work of establishing storm surge climatology during the next intersesssional period, in view of its important potential contribution to GFCS (Recommendation). _____________ * Text length: approx. 1300 words. * Text in blue colour will not appear on the JCOMM-IV/Doc.X. Working Paper for CGMS: Requirements of Satellite Information for Coastal Inundation Forecasting and Warning In support of the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) The Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) was initiated jointly by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) and the WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy), aiming to provide an example of cooperative work as a strategy for building improved operational forecast and warning capability for coastal inundation from combined extreme waves, surges and river flooding events, that can be sustained by the responsible national agencies. The fist sub-project of CIFDP is being launched in Bangladesh where the most destructive coastal inundation regularly occurs due to storm surges and associated flooding. Satellite observations have clearly demonstrated the potential to provide information to improve coastal inundation monitoring, forecasting and warnings; yet the quality and usability of these observations are still to be improved. This paper introduces the currently identified requirements for satellite information in support of the associated coastal applications, and proposes actions for CGMS Satellite Operators to participate in and contribute to the CIFDP implementation.  Actions/Recommendations proposed: CGMS Satellite Operators are invited to consider the requirements of satellite information for coastal applications that are described in this paper, and provide comments to WMO (Dr Boram Lee,  HYPERLINK "mailto:blee@wmo.int" blee@wmo.int); CGMS members are encouraged to identify opportunities to develop and share improved products / services; CGMS members are invited to consider participating in and contributing to CIFDP and relevant R&D activities such as eSurge, and to identify ways to coordinate related activities. CGMS members are encouraged to liaise with WMO/JCOMM (contact to Dr Boram Lee,  HYPERLINK "mailto:blee@wmo.int" blee@wmo.int) to coordinate training activities on forecasting and warning for storm surges and coastal inundation. INTRODUCTION Coastal regions around the world are often heavily populated and their economic productivity and importance is significant. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 are coastal, including 8 of the 10 largest, and highly vulnerable to coastal hazards. In the meantime, a large number of natural hazards occurring particularly in coastal zones are weatherrelated events. A total of 950 natural catastrophes were recorded in 2010, nine-tenths of which were weather-related events like storms and floods (Munich Re, Annual Statistics 2010). These events and their impact on coastal areas are not from a sole reason: various factors such as sea-level rise, increased storminess, inundation combine and cause greater damage to low-lying coastal regions. To improve the predictability of coastal hazards, those various factors should be considered altogether. As mean sea levels rise by 20-90 cm towards the end of this century, storm surge issues for both real-time warning systems and risk assessment will become even more important. The Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges held during 2-6 October 2007 at Seoul, Korea Republic (SSS:  HYPERLINK "http://surgesymposium.org" http://surgesymposium.org), organized by the Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), initiated renewed awareness of the need to improve storm surge forecasting systems that make full use of modern techniques and observations. The SSS made a number of wide-ranging recommendations on future requirements for development of two key activities: (1) real-time operational storm surge forecasting as a contribution to multi-hazard marine warning systems and (2) improved risk assessment. Underpinning those requirements is the need for enhanced observational data for a number of parameters on a range of temporal and spatial scales. Both WMO and IOC governing bodies endorsed the recommendations of the Symposium, and encouraged Members/Members States to actively contribute to these activities in support of improved global forecasting of storm surges and risk assessment. JCOMM, the technical body of experts in this area is responsible for the implementation and coordination. ONGOING ACTIVITIES: COASTAL INUNDATION FORECASTING DEMONSTRATION PROJECT (CIFDP) Discussions at the SSS have recently realized in the advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean storm surges under the framework of the UNESCO project on Enhancing regional capabilities for coastal hazards forecasting in North Indian Ocean ( HYPERLINK "http://www.jcomm.info/SSIndia2" http://www.jcomm.info/SSIndia2), and the eSurge project by the European Space Agency ( HYPERLINK "http://www.storm-surge.info/" http://www.storm-surge.info/) to look at how storm surge forecasting systems and applications can be improved through the innovative use of ocean, land and atmospheric satellite observations. One common goal from all of these coordinated activities will be to comprehensively define a set of data requirements, both in-situ and remotely sensed. Broad support for these important initiatives is essential to improve our understanding and prediction of the most destructive phenomenon in the marine environment. For many storm surge warning and coastal management applications the Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) at a given location and time is extremely useful. TWLE is the combined effect of residual surge, high tide, wave setup, wave run-up, and for some regions, precipitation and river flow. In the meantime, there exists limitation of operational technologies to precisely predict TWLE. Building on the past and ongoing efforts to improve operational capabilities for storm surge forecasting, JCOMM and WMO Commission for Hydrology (CHy) jointly initiated a demonstration project with the objective of building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation from combined extreme waves, surges and river flooding events. The main focus is to facilitate the development of efficient warning systems for coastal inundation based on clearly identified national/regional requirements. Therefore the Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) should: Support informed decision-making on warning issuance and dissemination (that includes information on land-use and planning); Transfer and translate science and technology to communities (technology development and transfer); Facilitate the development of a comprehensive Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) in basins subject to tropical cyclones and storm surges; Facilitate the development and implementation of warning services; Provide improved science to forecasters; Support risk assessment and mapping; and Provide a framework for Coastal Flood Management Identify and support end-user needs. In the context of cross-cutting capacities, the project aims to establish collaboration and regular communication between scientists, forecasters, national meteorological/hydrological services and institutional end-users, to meet users' requirements and enhance response to coastal inundation risks. SATELLITE DATA REQUIREMENTS FOR FORECASTING AND WARNING OF STORM SURGE AND ASSOCIATE COASTAL INUNDATION, IN SUPPORT OF CIFDP The TWLE and associated data are required from a number of well-documented surge episodes from a region for calibration and validation of numerical predictive models, analysis of historical events and real-time forecasting and verification of storm surges and associated inundation. A considerable range of meteorological, oceanographic, bathymetric, topographic, hydrological and orographic data is required to underpin a reliable TWLE forecasting and analysis for a given area. Numerical models of atmosphere and ocean play a critical role in forecasting storm surges and associated coastal inundation, since the resolution required in marine meteorological and oceanographic forcing and evolution of the surge as it approaches the coast is considerably higher than that provided by most observational systems. Nevertheless, it is the observation and model combination that provides the best results. In recent years with the advent of additional data types, and the increased sophistication of storm surge models, the possibilities and requirements for additional data have evolved. A schematic of the storm surge prediction process is shown in Figure 1. Data requirements for forecasting and risk assessment of storm surges and associated inundation fall into three main categories, and encompass several different variables and observational methods: (1) Data we need in advance of an event, which need to be updated on longer time scales. This includes shoreline geometry, bathymetry and coastal elevation. These data are a common requirement with the tsunami forecasting and inundation activities. Bathymetry on continental shelf areas should be available on a horizontal resolution of 100 m, with a vertical resolution of 1 m, and be updated every 5 years, with more frequent updates in sensitive river mouth areas such as Bangladesh. Digital elevation data for coastal areas should be available with a horizontal resolution of 5 m, a vertical resolution of 0.5 m, and be updated on a decadal time scale. (2) Data we need after the event for model and forecast validation and calibration. This is comprised of post-event surveys of inundation extent, depth and duration. This should include crest gauges or ribbon networks (specially treated ribbons which indicate exposure to flood water, deployed in advance of a storm), satellite photos of inundated regions, and manual surveys of inundated areas, with in-person interviews. This information should be collected over periods ranging from a few hours after the storm to several days depending on the rate of retreat of the water. The required horizontal resolution for this information is 25 m; satellite images may be able to provide information at 10 m resolution. This is also a common requirement with the tsunami community for extent of tsunami inundation. (3) Data we need during the event, over the period of a few days preceding landfall of a storm (tropical or extratropical), updated in real time. This can generally be characterized as metocean data, including the meteorological forcing and the water level response. These data would include: storm track and intensity, nearshore wind fields, wave heights, surface water levels (at least 1-minute average values), surface pressure fields, at least pressure drop surface currents, sea surface temperature, vertical temperature profiles, sea surface height anomalies. These data may be provided from a range of observational systems (ground-based, buoys, aircraft, satellites). Table 1 describes sources of required metocean data for forecasting storm surges and associated coastal inundation, as documented by the JCOMM Services and Forecasting System Programme Area (SFSPA).  Figure 1. Schematic of data requirements for total water level predictions. Table 1. Sources of Metocean data (excerpt from JCOMM SFSPA Observations User Requirement Document) ParameterField data sourcesSatellite data sourcesNumerical model and analysis data sourcesSea state Wave buoys. Ship observations. Oil platforms. Coastal HF radar.Satellite altimetry (wave height data). Synthetic Aperture Radar data. Wave model analysis and forecast systemsSurface wind Moored buoys. Drifting buoys. Ship observations. Oil platforms.Scatterometer data. Satellite altimetry.NWP analysis and forecast systems.Precipitation Ship observations. Coastal stations. Oil platforms. Weather radar.NWP analysis and forecast systems.Sea surface temperature Argo floats. Ship observations. Moored buoys. Drifting buoys.Infrared satellite data. Microwave satellite data.SST analysis systems. Ocean analysis and forecast systems.Bathymetry / shorelineAerial photographs.Satellite imagery.Bathymetric chart data. Gridded bathymetric datasets.  The data identified in paragraph (3) above are the ones most relevant to an operational metocean ocean observing program. They are also common to many other programs, so there is a large degree of commonality in terms of the data requirements and accuracy. Requirements for accuracies of the metocean parameters needed are basically as given by WMO (e.g. Rolling Review of Requirements), although the spatial resolutions required for storm surge forecasting will be of higher resolution, at least in the shelf areas. No restrictions should be placed on the availability of water level and related data; complete documentation of a storm surge may require extensive cooperation between neighbouring countries. One of the most challenging areas is to ensure national access to, or development of, high resolution, near shore, bathymetric data sets Need for Improved Information / Products from Satellites Surface wind data from satellite, especially scatterometer, plays an important role in defining the forcing for storm surge generation, from both tropical and extra-tropical storms. Research requirements for remotely sensed winds (and waves) include calibration issues in the most extreme conditions, and rain attenuation effects, which will be critical in tropical cyclones. Satellite SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) can measure speeds, both in the coastal zone and in the open ocean where no in-situ measurements are possible. Visible and infrared satellite images can be used to track the progress of storms and estimate their landfall location. They can also be used to assess the degree of inundation after an event, both to support recovery efforts and to assess the performance of the models used. Combined with SAR, such images can help estimating the coastal stretch likely to be inundated. An important potential data set for forecasting storm surges and associated inundation would be from satellite altimeter, particularly in the areas near the coast. In many areas with limited infrastructure, this is the only feasible way to consistently measure this parameter. Cipollini et al (2010) discussed the possibilities of extending the capabilities of current and future altimeters as close as possible to the coast, with the ultimate aim to integrate the altimeter-derived measurements of sea level, wind speed and significant wave height into coastal ocean observing systems: They note that the quintessential, most immediate application of coastal altimetry is to look at the coastal sea level, including short term sea level variations (leading to monitoring of surges). Several parameters derived from altimetry can contribute to forecasts of tropical cyclone paths, including wind speed and wave height, meso-scale circulation and the tropical cyclone heat potential, as well as improvement of tide knowledge by direct assimilation of the data into hydrodynamic models. Most satellite altimetry techniques, however, have been developed to measure Sea Surface Height (SSH) in the open ocean, and some work still needs to be done for extending these measurements to the coast. The recently launched eSurge project, funded by the European Space Agency (ESA), aims to address this issue within the context of the project. This application of satellite information includes assimilation into numerical models, including global and regional offshore wave models and storm surge models. Altimeter wave height observations provide the most straightforward data set to use, and would generally be used alongside associated wind speed observations. SAR derived wave spectra can also be used, but present more technical challenges. Whilst the satellite instruments clearly have the potential to provide observations with synoptic global coverage, the quality and usability of these observations is dependent upon good calibration of the satellite sensors. This can only be achieved through use of a sufficiently dense network of accurate in situ measurements. Point data are required for validation of altimeter wave measurements, whilst spectral data are required for use with SAR derived wave spectra. Table 2 suggests a subset of satellite observations to meet the currently identified requirements, as documented by the JCOMM Services and Forecasting System Programme Area (SFSPA). Table 2. Implications for Satellite observing system (excerpt from the JCOMM Services Requirements) PlatformRequired networkCommentsSatellite altimeter Minimum 20km resolution required for use in regional models. Along track spacing is likely to be adequate to meet this requirement; cross-track spacing is not. Multiple altimeters are therefore required to provide adequate cross track sampling. Fast delivery (within 6 hours at most) required with accuracy of 10% / 25cm for wave height, and 1 second for wave period. Long-term, stable time series of repeat observations required for climate applications.Primary requirements arise from data assimilation. Secondary requirement for use in validation. Swath data would be advantageous. Precise specification of wave period products is required.Synthetic aperture radar / Real aperture radar100km resolution required for use in regional models, with fast delivery required (within 6 hours)Primary requirements arise from data assimilation. Secondary requirement for use in validation. Real aperture radar capability expected to be available within 5 years. PROPOSED ACTIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS CGMS Satellite Operators are invited to consider the requirements of satellite information for coastal applications that are described in this paper, and provide comments to WMO (Dr Boram Lee,  HYPERLINK "mailto:blee@wmo.int" blee@wmo.int). Sharing data, information and products is the key to improve and maintain the high quality prediction; therefore CGMS members are encouraged to identify opportunities to develop and share improved products / services. There exists wide range of activities under way that pursue common goals to the CIFDP and related WMO activities, as the coastal disaster management is one of the key issues in many operational agencies. CGMS members are invited to consider participating in and contributing to CIFDP and relevant R&D activities such as eSurge, and to identify ways to coordinate related activities. Capacity Development and technology transfer is a critical aspect for the coastal hazard forecasting and warning. At JCOMM-III (2009), Members / Member States emphasized that consideration should be given to workshops on marine services including links to public weather services and disaster risk reduction aspects, with a focus on regions of specific concern, such as coastal inundation in vulnerable low-lying areas. CGMS members are encouraged to liaise with WMO/JCOMM (contact to Dr Boram Lee,  HYPERLINK "mailto:blee@wmo.int" blee@wmo.int) to coordinate training activities on forecasting and warning for storm surges and coastal inundation. It was proposed that space agencies investigate feasibilities to provide high resolution bathymetric and coastal zone topographic data for better storm surge and coastal inundation forecasts. CGMS Members are invited to discuss on this issue considering both technical and operational aspects, and provide feedback to WMO/JCOMM ( HYPERLINK "mailto:blee@wmo.int" blee@wmo.int). REFERENCES Bourassa, M. & Co-Authors (2010). Remotely sensed winds and wind stresses for marine forecasting and ocean modeling. In these proceedings (Vol.2). Cipollini, P. & Co-Authors (2010). The Role of Altimetry in Coastal Observing Systems. In these proceedings (Vol.2). Dube, S. K., Chittibabu, P., Sinha, P. C., Rao, A. D. and Murty, T. S. (2004). Numerical modeling of storm surges in the head Bay of Bengal using location specific model. Natural Hazards 31, 437-453. Dube, S. K., Sinha, P. C., Rao, A. D., Jain, I. and Agnihotri, N. (2005). Effect of Mahanadi River on the development of storm surge along the Orissa coast of India: A numerical study. Pure and appl. geophys 162, 1673-1688. ESA (2011), eSurge Project website:  HYPERLINK "http://www.storm-surge.info" http://www.storm-surge.info Horsburgh, K. J., and Flowerdew, J. (2009). Real time coastal flood forecasting. In: Applied uncertainty analysis for flood risk management. Editors K. Beven and J. Hall. World Scientific Press. (in press). IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 104 pp JCOMM (2008). Proceedings of the 1st JCOMM Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges, Seoul, Republic of Korea, 2-6 October 2007. JCOMM Technical Report No. 44, WMO/TD-No. 1442. Geneva, Switzerland. ( HYPERLINK "http://www.surgesymposium.org" http://www.surgesymposium.org) Lee, B. and Dube, S. (2009). Advisory Workshop on enhancing forecasting capabilities for North Indian Ocean Storm Surges, 14-17 July 2009. IOC Workshop Report No. 223, Paris, UNESCO, 37pp. McInnes, K. L., Macadam, I., Hubbert, G.D. and O'Grady, J.G. (2009). A Modelling Approach for Estimating the Frequency of Sea Level Extremes and the Impact of Climate Change in Southeast Australia. Numerical modelling of Storm Surges--- the latest developments. Natural Hazards Special Issue (Val Swail, Shishir Dube, Paula Etala, Kevin Horsburgh, eds.) 51 (1), 115-137. Resio, D.T. and Westerink, J.J. (2008). Modeling the physics of storm surges. Physics Today. September 2008, 33-38. Thompson, K. R., Bernier, N. and Chan, P. (2009). Extreme Sea Levels, Coastal Flooding and Climate Change With a Focus on Atlantic Canada. Numerical modelling of Storm Surges--- the latest developments. Natural Hazards Special Issue (Val Swail, Shishir Dube, Paula Etala, Kevin Horsburgh, eds.) 51 (1), 139-150. V. Swail, B. Lee, A. Soares, D. Resio, K. Horsburgh, T. Murty, S. Dube, M. Entel, and J. Flowerdew (2009), Storm Surge, OceanObs09 Community White Paper World Meteorological Organization, Rolling Review of Requirements and Statements of Guidance, in ( HYPERLINK "http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/RRR-and-SOG.html" http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/sat/RRR-and-SOG.html). _______________     SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3, p  PAGE 2 SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3, p  PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 6 MAN-IX/Doc. 4.3, Appendix A, p  PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 3 SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3, Appendix A SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3, Appendix B SCG-VI/Doc. 4.1, Appendix SCG-VI/Doc. 4.3, Appendix B, p  PAGE \* MERGEFORMAT 2 <=>   ±™o]oL9L9L9L9L9%h CJOJQJmH nHo(sH tH hM0h CJOJQJmH sH "hLh ;OJQJnHo(tHhLh ;OJQJnHtHh ;OJQJnHo(tHhM0h mH sH .hM0h 5CJOJQJmH nHo(sH tH hM0h CJOJQJmH sH (h 5CJOJQJmH nHo(sH tH#hM0h 5CJOJQJmH sH +hM0h CJOJQJmH nHo(sH tH#$>?v x$:$Ifa$gd}v $$Ifa$gd}vTkd$$IfTx40$(5)4 xaf4yt}vT $$Ifa$gd}v d$Ifgd}v       ! 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