ࡱ> #` #Rbjbjmm .J HHH8ITrIdUhI:JJJJJZt^<Ԥ֤֤֤֤֤֤$h%~fJJffJJ j j jfJJԤ jfԤ j jl(JI @4`PHgNL*Ԥ%0UvhT(@5abD j?dCe5a5a5aiv5a5a5aUffff$!")") Guide to Operational Ocean Forecast Systems: Skeleton draft Main issues to consider: Is the level of detail appropriate? Is the overview of system functions useful? (section II) Are we agreed that GOVST will demonstrate a verification approach before ET-OOFS attempts to oversee it? (section III.3) What status do we feel the obligations should have? (section I.4 and parts of section II and IV) If they are just recommendations, the wording should be changed to reflect this. Table of Contents:  TOC \o "2-2" \n \t "Heading 1,1" I Organisation of operational ocean forecasting systems I.1 Purpose and scope of the guide I.2 Organisation I.3 Overview list of systems I.4 Obligations on system operators II Overview of the system functions II.1 Pre-processing of observation data II.2 Data assimilation II.3 Model forecast II.4 Value-added applications II.5 Preparation of model-based climatologies and hindcast data sets II.6 Intercomparison of analyses and forecast products and verification of the accuracy of the products II.7 Development of the analysis and forecast systems II.8 Monitoring of observational data supply and quality II.9 Maintenance of product archives II.10 Contribution to outreach on the interpretation and application of the analyses and forecast products III Forecasting products III.1 Standard products III.2 Additional optional products III.3 Quality information IV Data management IV.1 Data formats IV.2 Data exchange IV.3 Archiving and data availability V References VI Appendices VI.1 System descriptions VI.2 Glossary of standard terms VI.3 Open-source software for ocean forecast systems VI.4 Publicly available data for driving and validating ocean forecast systems  Organisation of operational ocean forecasting systems Purpose and scope of the guide The worlds oceans are of great importance to society, and information about the current state of the ocean has many existing and potential applications. There are now several ocean forecast systems in operation, producing analyses and forecasts of the ocean state in near-real time. This guide brings together information about these operational ocean forecasting systems. The main purpose is to facilitate efficient access to oceanographic analyses and forecast products. Additionally, the guide acts as a recognition of best practice among the operators and gives an overview of the state of the art systems for new providers. The scope of the systems to be included within the guide is defined by the JCOMM Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems (ET-OOFS). The ET-OOFS remit and scope is defined in [ET-OOFS agreed docs ref]; the scope can be summarised as including systems that provide analyses and forecasts for: Time scales from hours to intra-seasonal Horizontal scales from eddy resolving through to basin scale Vertical scales from mixed layer / baroclinic through to barotropic The real-time functions of the systems included within the guide include: Pre-processing of observations data (retrieval, quality control, decoding) Generation of analyses of the three-dimensional structure of the ocean with regional to global coverage Preparation of numerical forecast products with regional to global coverage Preparation of specialised and value added products for specific applications The non-real-time functions of the systems included in the guide include: Preparation of model-based climatologies and hindcast data sets Intercomparison of analyses and forecast products and verification of the accuracy of the products Development of the analysis and forecast systems Monitoring of observational data supply and quality Maintenance of product archives Contribution to outreach on the interpretation and application of the analyses and forecast products Organisation The majority of systems contributing to the guide are operated on a national basis with coordination through the JCOMM ET-OOFS. Operators may provide products on both a global and a regional basis, and products are available from several operators for many regions. Within Europe the ocean forecasting systems are interlinked to form the Marine Core Service of the European Commissions Global Monitoring for Environment and Security initiative. Some input data streams are common to several systems, though pre-processing is carried out independently by each operator. More widely, there is coordination between operators on the development of ocean models and data assimilation schemes, with some models being shared by several operators. Many models are developed by consortia of operators and academic institutes, and in many cases the code is available under open-source licences. A list of open-source software is given in Appendix xx. At present there are no agreed protocols for the issue of operational ocean forecasts for particular regions. Overview list of systems The following ocean forecasting systems are currently operating: BLUElink>, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia C-NOOFS, Fisheries and Oceans Canada ECCO, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, USA FOAM, Met Office, UK HYCOM/NCODA, Naval Oceanographic Office, USA Mercator, Mercator Ocean, France MFS, Italian Group of Operational Oceanography MOVE, Meteorological Research Institute NLOM/NCOM, Naval Oceanographic Office, USA NMEFC, State Oceanographic Administration, China RTOFS, National Centres for Environmental Prediction, USA TOPAZ, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Norway The JCOMM ET-OOFS website contains an up-to-date description of these system, along with their main characteristics. I propose that on the website we maintain tables of the key characteristics, on the model of those in Dombrowsky et al (2009). Obligations on system operators There are two issues regarding this section: What do we mean by obligation? In the current draft, some obligations are gathered in this section, while others are distributed through the rest of the text. The operators of systems included within the guide will endeavour to meet the following obligations: Accessibility of products Operators will make products available to users upon reasonable request and subject to appropriate local licence agreements. Operators will make products available to other operators for the purpose of the work associated with and related to the JCOMM ET-OOFS. Products will also be made freely available for use in training and for outreach activities aimed at widening the use of the products. Provision and updating of information Operators will contribute to documentation of the systems including the preparation of the Guide, and the definition of requirements for observations. Operators will endeavour to ensure that such information is updated at reasonable intervals and remains current and relevant. Adherence to standards Operators will endeavour to adhere to agreements on standards and operating methods that are approved by the JCOMM ET-OOFS, and to co-operate with reasonable requests that arise from the work of ET-OOFS. Sharing software Operators are requested to inform the secretariat if they have software they are willing to share. The secretariat will maintain a list of such software, which will be of particular use to new operators. Operators are encouraged to make software available under open-source licenses. The first statement is an analogue of a request in the NWP manual for the GDPDS. We would need to think about whether such a mechanism is useful and feasible for OOFS/JCOMM. Overview of the system functions This section gives an overview of the steps which comprise operational ocean forecast systems. The purpose is to gives users a broad understanding of how the products are created, in order to give an insight into their strengths and limitations. It also gives future operators an introduction to the components of an operational system. A detailed description of the functions is not presented here, but where appropriate reference is made to material containing further detail. Descriptions need improved (or started), plus references to further information such as review articles, where appropriate. Is this section even necessary? Pre-processing of observation data Prior to performing ocean analyses, observations must be retrieved and quality-controlled. Observations are made available via various platforms, such as the WMO Global Telecommunication System (GTS), and in various formats. The ocean forecasting system collects the observations and decodes them into a common format which can be understood by the quality control and data assimilation systems. Inevitably there are observations which are delivered with undetected problems, for example due to sensor error. The forecasting system therefore performs quality control (QC) checks on the observations. These checks include: Comparison against the model background fields Comparison against nearby observations (buddy check) [and so on] Observations which fail these checks are given flags, which enable the assimilation and validation programs to ignore them. Data assimilation The data assimilation step takes the observations and the model background field as inputs, and using a priori estimates of the errors inherent in both, produces an analysis of the current ocean state which is consistent with the model physics. There is a wide diversity of data assimilation schemes in operational use, some of which are outlined in Appendix ??. A good overview can be found in Cummings et al (2009). Model forecast The analysis is used to initialise the ocean forecast. The forecast itself is made by a general circulation model (GCMs), which calculate solutions of the governing equations. The resulting forecast products are gridded fields of model parameters at various lead times. Details of the standard forecast products are given in chapter III. These models include some or all of the following components: The physical ocean Sea-ice Suspended particulate matter Ecosystem Surface and boundary forcing are particularly important to the quality of the ocean forecast system. Surface fluxes of heat, moisture and momentum are derived from the surface fields of weather forecast systems. The accuracy of the near-surface fields depends strongly on the accuracy of these fluxes. High-resolution regional ocean forecast models are nested into lower-resolution global models, sometimes via a sequence of wider-scale intermediate-resolution regional models. The coupling between these nested configurations is generally one-way, with the inner model having no influence on the outer model. This is not universally the case, and some global models use local enhancement of resolution to achieve two-way coupling. Value-added applications For many applications, it is not enough to have an analysis or forecast of the ocean state, it is necessary to process the data further, or combine it with data from other sources. Examples of value-added applications include: Oil spill drift monitoring and prediction Search and rescue Algal blooms [As many examples as we like, with a sentence or two on each...] Preparation of model-based climatologies and hindcast data sets Intercomparison of analyses and forecast products and verification of the accuracy of the products Development of the analysis and forecast systems Monitoring of observational data supply and quality Informing data centres of suspect observations. Maintenance of product archives Contribution to outreach on the interpretation and application of the analyses and forecast products Forecasting products Standard products Levels and metadata Sub-surface fields such as temperature and salinity should either be provided on a subset of the models levels, or on a standard set of depths defined in Appendix xx. Where surface fields are provided, these should be taken from the models upper-most layer, and the depth of this layer should be specified in the product metadata. For surface temperature, a correction may be applied to account for diurnal surface warming and cool-skin effects; if so, this should also be made clear in the product metadata. If sea-surface elevation is provided as a product, the metadata should specify whether the underlying model includes a representation of the following processes important to elevation on continental shelves: tides atmospheric surface pressure Real time products Each system operator will endeavour to produce the following standard products on a real-time basis: Analyses and forecasts of ocean surface and subsurface temperature ocean surface and subsurface salinity ocean surface and subsurface currents depth of the surface mixed layer [optional?] sea-ice concentration sea-surface elevation [optional?] [any more?] Delayed mode Each system operator will endeavour to produce the following standard delayed-model products: Monthly means of ocean surface and subsurface temperature ocean surface and subsurface salinity ocean surface and subsurface currents depth of the surface mixed layer [optional?] sea-ice concentration [any more?] Additional optional products In addition to the standard products, operators are encouraged to make the following products available if they are represented in the model. Quality information Alongside the real-time and delayed mode products each operator will endeavour to provide accompanying information on the accuracy of the analyses and forecasts based on objective verification procedures. Verification information should include the following basic statistics that will be exchanged between centres: Global mean and RMS temperature and salinity errors against observations etc. Global mean and RMS temperature and salinity errors against analyses etc. [Agreed list here or in annex. Specification to include variables, areas, statistics etc.] The exchange of verification data will be overseen by the ET-OOFS. The GOVST will develop and demonstrate methodologies for producing standardised verification information. This is required in order to overcome the significant differences in results which can arise from subtle differences in verification methodology. When these methods have been successfully demonstrated, they will adopted and overseen by the ET-OOFS. General quality aspects It is possible to present some generalisations on product accuracy for certain aspects of the ocean models. This information should enable users to make a priori judgements on the usefulness of a product for particular applications. They may arise from a lack of data available for assimilation, or from oceanographic processes which are not represented in the model. For example, most open-ocean models dont include tides, which limits their accuracy on continental shelves. This affects not just surface elevation and currents, but also temperature and salinity which they are strongly affected by tidal mixing. Regional models designed for continental shelves will generally include tides and other processes important in shallow water. If surface elevation is the primary concern, for example for predicting storm surge events, then even tidal coastal models may not include all of the important processes, such as atmospheric surface pressure. There are dedicated storm surge models, which are described in [reference the JCOMM guide to surge forecasting, to be published 2011?]. The schemes to apply lateral boundary data in nested regional models are not perfect, with the result that there can be a mismatch between the behaviour of the inner and outer models. This can sometimes result in unrealistic currents in the nested model near to its boundary. Systems which achieve two-way coupling using adaptive grids mitigate this problem to some extent. Observational data coverage also has a strong impact on the product quality. For example there is a very high density of sea surface temperature data from satellites and in-situ sensors, and correspondingly surface temperature products are more accurate than sub-surface products or surface salinity products. Similarly, there is relatively poor data coverage in the Southern Ocean, although this has improved since the development of the Argo programme. Taking this further, there are no real-time observations of sea-ice thickness which can be assimilated, with the result that this field is not directly constrained in models. Other important guidance? Data management Data formats Where possible data should be stored and exchanged in standard formats adopted by ET-OOFS. Non-standard data formats should be provided with adequate documentation to allow user interpretation. Data exchange Where possible operators should exchange both real time and archived data with other centres on request, with data exchanged in the standard format, subject to appropriate financial arrangements being in place where reasonable costs are incurred. Archiving and data availability Data should be stored in a manner that allows suitable cataloguing and extraction in response to requests, with flexibility to allow inclusion of additional variables or data types. The following data should be archived: Observations used in data assimilation and verification Selections of analyses and forecasts Associated verification results The archive should cover a period of at least one year [is this enough?]. All operators should make available a catalogue of archived data. References Clark, Wilson, et al (2009), ... Cummings, et al (2009), ... Dombrowsky et al. (2009), ... Appendices Glossary of standard terms Background: Model fields from a previous forecast cycle ET-OOFS: JCOMM Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems GODAE: Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment GOVST: GODAE OceanView Science Team RMS: Root-mean-square Open-source software for ocean forecast systems This section contains an overview of open-source software which can be used in ocean forecast systems. The purpose of including this information is to enable new and future providers to make the best use of existing software in order to reduce the cost and time in setting up a new ocean forecast system. Ocean models MOM (Modular Ocean Model):  HYPERLINK "http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ocean-model" http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ocean-model. Developed and supported by researchers at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), with contributions by researchers worldwide. NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean):  HYPERLINK "http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/" http://www.nemo-ocean.eu/. Organised and controlled by a European Consortium between CNRS, Mercator-Ocean, UK Met Office and NERC. HYCOM... etc... Ocean data assimilation schemes Verification tools Other? There are a wealth of visualisation packages should we select a few of these? 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